I missed Week 5, but we’re back this week with some graphs!
Draft Class Roles
Non-Neutral Time
This week, I’m sharing what I call “two-way non-neutral time”. This describes the % of game time that a team has had a 90% chance to win or better (purple) or a 10% chance to win or worse (orange). Green Bay is the only team to have never dropped below 10% win probability in a game this year. They tied Dallas and lost late to Cleveland. Four teams (CLE, CIN, TEN, NYJ) have not reached 90% win probability in 2025.
Pressure Rate Allowed by Alignment
Won’t be sharing this every week as it takes a while to update. This can be helpful in identifying where an offensive line’s weak points might be.
Oldest & Youngest QBs Matchups
Something fun! Tonight’s Thursday Night Football matchup will feature two of the oldest QBs to ever go head-to-head. It’ll be the first time in the Super Bowl era that a pair of 40 year-old starting QBs face off that are not named Tom Brady or Drew Brees. Aaron Rodgers and Joe Flacco are a combined 82 years and 226 days old today.
Just for fun, here are the youngest matchups. Fun fact: the 2018 Jets hosted Tom Brady and New England in Week 12 for what was, at the time, the oldest combined starting QB age in a single game. Two weeks later, Sam Darnold would take over for Josh McCown in a Week 14 game in Buffalo against Josh Allen, which was the youngest combined starting QB age game! Darnold would make the top 10 again the next week against Houston.
Target Rate by Route Depth
I’m a supporter of the idea that targets are earned and that pass catchers who are targeted often are among the best in the business. Target rate (defined here as targets over routes) can be depended on a players route tree though. Here, I’m showing average depth of route which is tracked by NFL Pro. This gives us classic target rate with the benefit of seeing which players are running a higher share of deep routes. Adonai Mitchell really jumps off the page here for me. He was scratched this week by the Colts, so I’m wondering if he’ll be traded before the deadline now that their pass catchers are back to full strength.
