Browns: 17 Benchmarks for Success in 2025
The upcoming season will be a transition year for the Cleveland Browns, so I came up with 17 ways to evaluate this team throughout the year.
I suspect that there will come a time (probably more than once) during the 2025 season that Cleveland Browns fans will lose patience with the state of this team. A mediocre, aging roster without an answer at quarterback will always make for a long season. My feeling is that the best way to stay grounded during a rebuilding year is to establish targets that are not explicitly tied to wins and losses today, but could lead to more wins in the future. The hold myself to that, I settled on 17 metrics (as opposed to the 17 games where the Browns will earn a win or a loss) that will give us a good sense of whether this team has remained on track for a rebound in 2026.
My 17 benchmarks can be separated into 4 categories:
1 to 7 measure the development of the young core
8 to 11 track key veterans
12 to 14 concern team-level outcomes
15 to 17 aren’t performance related, but are things I’d personally like to see
I was pretty careful about putting this together so that each benchmark is right around 50/50 and it’s strongly correlated to more than 2 other items. I’ll be tracking this on a weekly basis once we have real numbers, so stay tuned for that!
1) A Pair of Breakouts
A series of underwhelming drafts (due in part to lack of draft capital from the Watson trade) has left this team with a poor pipeline of young talent. If a turnaround is to happen quickly, there needs to be at least two players who can establish themselves as plus starters going into 2026.
Benchmark: Two players finish the season with a 70th percentile PFF grade for the first time in their career (must be among players who make up 80% of snaps at their position)
As this one is a little broad, here is a list of players on the Browns active roster who would be eligible and the snap count & grade they’d need to achieve.
2) Young RBs: Effective Early
The Browns double dipped at running back in the 2025 draft, selecting Quinshon Judkins with the 36th pick and following it up with Dylan Sampson at 126th. While Judkins remains unsigned as of this writing, I would anticipate his situation (which could include a suspension plus a unique contract negotiation) will clear up before the end of the 2025 season. Running backs tend to transition to the NFL more quickly than players at other positions, so we should expect both of these players to have a positive impact.
Benchmark: Rookie RBs combine for positive Rushing Yards Over Expected (NFL Pro model)
3) Young QBs: Back(ups) to the Future
Another higher profile positional double dip in the 2025 draft came at quarterback. Dillon Gabriel (pick 94) and Shedeur Sanders (pick 144) currently sit 2nd & 3rd respectively on the QB depth chart following the trade of Kenny Pickett to Las Vegas. While 40 year-old Joe Flacco will start the season, he is obviously not a part of the long-term plan for this franchise. One would think that Gabriel or Sanders will have a chance at some point in 2025 to prove that one of them can be relied upon as a solid backup. The bar is low at this point in their development.
Benchmark: Rookie QBs record positive Expected Points Added on QB plays in at least two full games (nflfastR model)
4) Young DTs: Establish Presence
The Browns have spent their first draft selection on the interior defensive line in back-to-back drafts, bringing in Michael Hall Jr. with the 54th pick in 2024, followed by Mason Graham with the 5th overall pick in 2025. Hall missed the start of his rookie season due to a stint on the commissioner's exempt list, stemming from a domestic violence arrest. His season concluded with a serious injury in Week 18 that may prevent him from taking on a full-time role early on in 2025. Regardless, Hall will play at some point in 2025 and, along with Graham, should be a meaningful contributor.
Benchmark: Graham + Hall combine for 60 pressures and stops (PFF charting)
5) Schwesinger: Minimize Mistakes
It can’t be said enough how much of a roller coaster the offseason was for the Browns group of linebackers. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah had already established himself as a one of the league’s best young starters, but he will sit out all of 2025 due to concerns about his history of concussions. Jordan Hicks unexpectedly announced his retirement at the start of camp, pushing Carson Schwesinger into a situation where he’ll wear the green dot as the defensive play caller. With Schwesinger looking at a near every down role right out of the gate, it’ll be key for him to avoid making mistakes as a young coverage player and tackler.
Benchmark: Allow a first down reception or miss a tackle on fewer than 4% of defensive snaps (PFF charting)
6) Jones: The Solution at LT
Left tackle Dawand Jones is the only Browns starting offensive linemen currently under contract for the 2026 season. Jones had a promising run at right tackle in his rookie year (2023) that was cut short due to injury. His 2024 campaign also ended with an injury, but not before he made three starts at left tackle, his first action at the position since his 2020 season at Ohio State. If he can stay healthy and prove to be a capable starter at left tackle, the organization won’t need to use draft capital address the position in 2026.
Benchmark: Play 10 full games at left tackle, end the season with a PFF grade above 70 (~40th percentile)
7) Tillman: Continued Development
Through Cedric Tillman’s rookie year and first six games of his second year, he’d totaled just 24 catches, 233 receiving yards, and 12 first downs. Following the trade of Amari Cooper, he more than doubled his career production in his next four games and three quarters, racking up 26 catches, 330 yards, and 15 first downs including his first three touchdowns. Tillman’s season ended with a Week 12 concussion, but it created real hope that he was turning the corner into an above average starter after an underwhelming start to his career.
Benchmark: Make 40 first down receptions (includes touchdowns)
8) Garrett: Remain Dominant
The four-time All-Pro remains among the best non-QBs in football and his extension this offseason has him under team control through his age 35 season in 2030. Even trading Garrett would be challenging from a cap perspective for a several more years, so he’s very much a part of the long-term vision for this team. As such, all Garrett has to do this season is maintain his standing as a top pass rusher, even if he’s not in the DPOY conversation.
Benchmark: Record 95 pass rush wins (PFF charting)
9) Ward: Stay Healthy & Avoid a Cliff
Denzel Ward’s remaining contract after 2025 has no guarantees will see him paid about $20m in each of the two following seasons. That kind of money will likely place him somewhere in the teens of the highest earning corners in 2026. It feels about right to me, although it should be noted that ESPN’s survey of Execs, coaches, and scouts ranked him as the #3 cornerback in football entering this season. Ward has struggled with injury at times. 2024 was the second time in his seven year career that he avoided missing back-to-back games. For Ward, 2025 will be a success if he can avoid serious injury while maintaining his standing as a solid #1 cornerback.
Benchmark: Play 80% of snaps in at least 9 games and allow a first down catch on less than 5% of coverage snaps
10) Jeudy: Keep Getting Open
The Browns landed Jerry Jeudy last offseason in a trade from Denver and signed him to a three-year extension with $28m in new guaranteed money on top of the $13m he was already guaranteed from his fifth-year option. So far, the move has paid off. Jeudy totaled a career-high 1,229 receiving yards in 2024, the sixth most in the league. He was also tied for the league lead with 25 targets that were more than 10 yards from the line of scrimmage where the receiver had at least three yards of separation.
Benchmark: Earn 17 targets at least 10 yards downfield with 3+ yards of separation (NFL Pro tracking)
11) Collins: Apply Pressure
The Browns are once again among the league’s top cash spenders in 2025, but much of that cash was earned through returning vets collecting option bonuses, the Garrett extension, and the annual donation to Deshaun Watson. Aside from draft picks, there is only one newcomer set to earn more than $5m this season in Cleveland: Maliek Collins. At 30, Collins doesn’t appear to be a great fit for a team in a rebuild. It would be comforting to see him play well enough to stick with the team into the second year of his two-year, $20m deal .
Benchmark: Record 40 QB pressures (PFF charting)
12) Make it to 3:15pm
As Browns fans know, watching a bad football team week in and week out can be boring. Even if a team is bad, tuning is a little easier if the games stay close. My hope is that we’ll see some fight from this team and they’ll keep it respectable into the fourth quarter more often than not. This was something the team failed to do last season when they were down by more than a touchdown entering the final quarter in 11 games.
Benchmark: Lead or trail by less than 7 at the start of the 4th quarter in 10 games
13) A Few Moments of Relevancy
Even the worst teams in the NFL can beat the best teams on any given Sunday. The 2025 Browns are expected to be among the worst teams and they’ll have ample opportunity to match up with the best teams this year as they face NFC North and the AFC runner-up Bills on top of their typically stiff divisional slate. Stealing some wins from that group would go a long way to building up some optimism going forward.
Benchmark: Win at least 3 games against the AFC North, NFC North, and Buffalo
14) Keep it Respectable
In the long run, it is an unfortunate reality that the Browns are better off losing games this season in pursuit of the top pick in the 2026 NFL draft. With that in mind, it is difficult to establish a target for overall team success that won’t cost the team later. My compromise is to aim for a point differential better than -85 (comes out to -5 points per game). A success will mean that the Browns either exceeded their over/under of 5.5 wins and were a better team than expected or they failed to meet their win target, but played better than their 3 or 4 or 5 win record might suggest.
Benchmark: Finish the year with a point differential better than -85
15) Jaguar Watch
The Browns opted to trade away their right to Travis Hunter in the 2025 draft in favor of selecting Mason Graham with a truckload of draft capital. The crown jewel of that haul could end up being the Jaguars 2026 1st round selection if it opens the door to a franchise QB. Jacksonville’s over/under win total for the year currently sits at 7.5. If they were to come in under that number, the Browns are likely looking at a top 10 pick. Based on my own observed draft pick trade model, a pair of top 10 picks alone should be able enough to vault to the top pick.
Benchmark: Jacksonville loses 10 games
16) Stay Out of the News
The Browns have developed a reputation recently as a team that often has players in legal trouble. Aside from Deshaun Watson, who was credibly accused of sexual harassment by more than 20 women before joining the team, four Browns players have been arrested on sexual assault or domestic violence charges in the last 13 months: Michael Hall Jr., Devin Bush, Quinshon Judkins, and newly signed Isaiah Bond. On top of that, Myles Garrett and Shedeur Sanders (twice) were each citing for speeding in incidents where they were driving more than 25 mph above the limit. It would be nice to avoid that kind of unwanted national attention during what may be a challenging season on the field.
Benchmark: No arrests (or speeding tickets)
17) No More Deshaun Watson
After bringing in four potential replacements this spring, it was clear this offseason that the franchise is no longer expecting Deshaun Watson to start at quarterback. Watson will begin the year on the Physically Unable to Perform list, but could be healthy enough to play at some point during the 2025 season. Speculation about insurance aside, Watson will likely remain a Cleveland Brown in some capacity through this season (and maybe next) to give the team maximum cap flexibility to absorb the remaining portion of his contract. Even if he makes it to the 53-man roster at some point, my hope is that he will never suit up for another game with this team.
Benchmark: Watson does not appear on 48-man gameday roster in any game
Honorable Mentions
I had a handful of other possible metrics that didn’t quite make the cut, so I thought I’d share them here!
Gain net draft capital in-season - felt like this wouldn’t be fair to measure as there are cases where it would be fine to spend draft capital to bring in a young asset. Also true that there are just not trades to make sometimes.
Extend Njoku - Not the only player in a contract year, but he’s the one who I think makes the most sense to retain.
Increased use of pre-snap motion & play action - I suspect we’re going to get this as the Browns should transition to something closer to the 2020 & 2021 offense. I just couldn’t find a reliable place to get this data.
Emergence of second edge rusher - Isaiah McGuire is coming off a strong season and Alex Wright is coming down to make-or-break time in his development. Don’t think it’s an absolute necessity to get a guy to pop here given how much has been invested in the rest of the DL, but worth watching.
Changing of the Guard (and Center) - As I mentioned in the Dawand Jones benchmark, nearly the entire offensive line is entering a contract year. Zak Zinter, Luke Wypler, and even Teven Jenkins (presently on a one-year deal), could be factors to take over. I just felt that it would be difficult measure what success looks like here.