2026 Offseason Preview: Arizona
The Arizona Cardinals look for a path to relevancy
statbutler.com will be compiling offseason previews for all 32 teams in the lead up to free agency. Feel free to share any of the text/visuals below with attribution. All underlying contract data was collected by overthecap.com.
Recent Team History
For the third time in four years, Arizona placed last in the NFC West. It was a season to forget that culminated in the firing of head coach Jonathan Gannon after three season.
2025 Season
Entering their Week 8 bye, Arizona was 2-5 and coming off five straight losses by four points or less. They beat Dallas in their first game after on Monday Night Football, but the dam soon broke. Arizona closed out the 2025 season with nine straight losses, six of which were by 17+ points.
New Offensive Brain Trust
Mike LaFleur is set to take over as the head coach of the Cardinals in 2026 after spending the last three seasons as offensive coordinator for the division rival L.A. Rams. LaFleur will bring on Nathaniel Hackett, who has four previous stints as an offensive coordinator and was once a head coach. In three of those five positions, Hackett was either fired or had his play-calling duties stripped in the middle of the season. LaFleur will begin his tenure as the primary play caller.
Returning Players
Note that all restructures below are assumed to be max restructures. This means that the team will use void years to prorate cash across up to five seasons, minimizing amount that will hit the current year’s salary cap.
For players who are not vested veterans, I’ve replaced information about the player’s active contract with a description of the team control remaining until the player can become an unrestricted free agent.
Arizona ran through a series of running backs last season after a spate of injuries at the position. The new offensive staff will have some options with how they proceed there. At receiver, Michael Wilson strung together several strong performances after an unremarkable two and a half years to start his career. Opposite Wilson, 2024 fourth overall pick Marvin Harrison Jr. hasn’t yet met his lofty pre-draft expectations. Another pass-catcher, Trey McBride, might be the best of the group. Arizona should be able to get something out of this talented young group. Paris Johnson Jr. missed the conclusion of the 2025 season with an MCL sprain, but he’s reliably the future for the Cardinals at left tackle. He’ll be thinking contract extension very soon.
Arizona no doubt felt that their defense would be a strength in 2025. Unfortunately, they’re coming out of the season with a lot of uncertainty. There are multiple cap casualty candidates on the defensive line with no younger players that are standing out. Budda Baker may be showing signs of aging and it’s hard to bank on anyone else in the secondary at this point.
Expiring Contracts
Jalen Thompson is probably the most valuable player in this pending free agent class. Calais Campbell remains a productive and valuable player, but will be 40 to start the 2026 season.
Kyler Murray
Jacoby Brissett took over for an injured Kyler Murray in Week 6, but Murray never officially returned and his time in Arizona may be done. Murray’s contract extends for the next three seasons and $36.8m is currently fully guaranteed with another $19.5m vesting on March 15th. With that in mind, the Cardinals need to decide before March 15th if a trade can be arranged or if they’ll be forced to cut the former top overall pick.
A cut would probably be a post-June 1st designation. If the contract went untouched, Arizona’s dead cap hit would consist of $47.5m in 2025 & $7.2m in 2026. However, the team could restructure some portion of Murray’s contract to even out those numbers, which would provide something closer to an even split of the total $54.7m dead cap hit.
I think a trade is the most likely outcome here. The Cardinals could offer to pay down the fully guaranteed portion of Murray’s 2026 compensation ($36.8m) in advance of the trade, leaving Arizona with a single $54.7m dead cap hit in 2026. The new team would pick up $5.7m in 2026, but would also inherit Murray’s 2027 fully guaranteed salary ($19.5m) that vests on March 15th. If the new team wanted to keep Murray into 2027, it would only cost them $16.8m. This proposition, essentially a $42m/2yr contract with $25.2m guaranteed at signing, is preferable to the $40m/2yr with $30m guaranteed at signing that Justin Fields signed last year as an unrestricted free agent with the Jets. It’s a relatively small deviation from the worst case for Arizona in terms of dead cap and I would think this should net them at least an early Day 3 pick in return.
Projected Tags & Cuts
I’m not including ERFA eligible players here (expiring contracts with less than 3 accrued seasons), as they can either sign a league minimum contract or the team can allow them to leave.
I’m anticipating that Arizona will place an original round restricted free agent tender on kicker Chad Ryland. Not that it matters, but Ryland was drafted in the 4th round. The difference between the original round tender and the right of first refusal tender in a case like this is enormous. Arizona will spend less than $200k more than the right of first refusal tender and make Ryland untouchable. I would not rule out that Bam Knight or Emari Demercado could also receive an RFA tender, but I’m not planning on it for now. They would both be at the RoFR level.
As far cuts, I have quite a few for Arizona. The biggest is Dalvin Tomlinson. This will be Tomlinson’s second straight year as a cap casualty after Cleveland let him go a year ago. Sean Murphy-Bunting was placed on the Non-Football Injury list last May. He’s due to earn $7.5m in 2026 which needs to be locked in starter money. With no changes at GM or defensive coordinator, this is a spot where a pay cut could be in play depending on the Murphy-Bunting’s health. Bilal Nichols started the year on the Physically Unable to Perform list last year and finished it on IR. His last two years have been ugly and he’s out of guarantees in the final year of his deal. Left guard Evan Brown closes things out. He’s due to earn $5m in 2026, but was a healthy scratch in each of the last five games of 2025.
I would also keep and eye on running back James Conner. He’s due to earn $8m in 2026. I presume he’s penciled in as the starter, but at 31 and coming off an injury it’s a big commitment for a running back. Conner has a $1m roster bonus coming to him on March 15th. If Arizona can’t work something out, he’ll hit the market before then.
The Salary Cap
In the image below, each blue bordered rectangle is equivalent to the cap hit of a single player. Within that rectangle, there are more rectangles that break down the player’s cap hit. Areas colored green can be pushed entirely into a future cap years via max restructure. Areas with vertical bars are “locked in” and the team cannot open them up by releasing the player. They represent either fully guaranteed cash that hasn’t been earned yet or remaining proration from cash earned in previous league years.
The Cardinals are well under the cap as of now. Even dumping Kyler Murray this year would not put them in danger of cap compliance.
The “Excess Cap Space” I have for Arizona is right about at the league average. As mentioned above, they can afford to swallow Kyler Murray’s full dead cap hit in 2026 and have some room to maneuver after. Arizona has some talent, but it’ll take a splashy offseason to make them a true 2026 competitor.
Draft Capital
Arizona holds all of their own picks going forward and nothing more. Their first pick will be 3rd overall and next will be 34th. I’m partial to using early picks on athletic, productive edge rushers with a roster as wide open as this.