Recent Team History

After a disappointing 2024, San Francisco reversed their fortunes and turned in a 12 win season plus a playoff win, despite the fact that they dealt with significant injury issues.

2025 Season

San Francisco was forced to go to Mac Jones in Weeks 2 & 3 and then again from Week 5 to Week 10. The offense also went through stretches without George Kittle and Ricky Pearsall. Star WR Brandon Aiyuk was not with the team for any part of 2025. Incredibly, this was still an offense that finished the year in the 75th percentile of EPA/play. This success is a testament to Kyle Shannan, Christian McCaffrey, and the 49ers excellent offensive linemen.

New Defensive Coordinator

For the second time in his tenure as 49ers head coach, Kyle Shanahan is replacing Robert Saleh after Saleh accepted a head coaching job. In 2020, it was DeMeco Ryans that took the role when Saleh left for the Jets. This time around, San Francisco is bringing in Raheem Morris, most recently the head coach in Atlanta, to take the reigns. Morris has a long history of coaching alongside Shanahan.

Returning Players

Note that all restructures below are assumed to be max restructures. This means that the team will use void years to prorate cash across up to five seasons, minimizing amount that will hit the current year’s salary cap.

For players who are not vested veterans, I’ve replaced information about the player’s active contract with a description of the team control remaining until the player can become an unrestricted free agent.

The key pillars of the San Francisco offense are aging, but far from crumbling. Christian McCaffrey (30), George Kittle (32), Trent Williams (38), Jake Brendel (34), and Colton McKivitz (30) have been fixtures in this successful offense for years. I don’t think it is time to replace any of these guys, but the team should be stocking up on the kind of versatile offensive talent that powers this offense. Mac Jones’ solid showing is going to make him a serious trade candidate, especially since a team can bring him in at just over $3m.

San Francisco’s defense is younger than their offense, but the unit also isn’t quite as strong. There are four defenders due to make $15m+ in 2026: Nick Bosa ($23.2m), Fred Warner ($23.2m), Bryce Huff ($17.1m), and Deommodore Lenoir ($16.6m). Bosa, who missed nearly all of 2025 with a torn ACL, is the only of the four who has any guarantees at the moment and it covers all of his 2026 compensation. Warner missed significant time in 2025, but was playing well prior to that. His offseason is especially significant because he’s due to have his next two years of salaries ($1.7m & $15.3m) vest to full guarantees on April 1st, but at some point will also earn a $21m option which makes up nearly all of his 2026 pay. With that said, Warner can effectively lock in $38m prior to the start of the season. Bryce Huff played well enough to stick at $17m in my opinion, but I’m sure San Francisco would like to see him a bigger load going forward.

Expiring Contracts

San Francisco’s top free agent is Jauan Jennings. Jennings took a step back after a strong 2024, but they need some real help at WR and may not have the appetite to spend an early pick at the position or spend big in free agency. Veteran kicker Eddy Pineiro is coming off a season where he missed just one field goal, so he may be a candidate to return in 2026.

Projected Tags & Cuts

I’m not including ERFA eligible players here (expiring contracts with less than 3 accrued seasons), as they can either sign a league minimum contract or the team can allow them to leave.

San Francisco has a handful of players that are scheduled to earn major cash in 2026. As long the 49ers believe in the makeup of this team, I think they might as well stick with who they have. The only exception is Brandon Aiyuk. Aiyuk was unable to return from a knee injury suffered in 2024 and the team voided the remaining guarantees in his contract in November. For a trade to happen, Aiyuk would surely need to renegotiate his current contract, which he really has no incentive to work toward since the alternative would be an outright release. There really is no other path here. He’ll be a free agent and we’ll see if he’s able to play again elsewhere.

The Niners have three players that I see as legitimately on the radar for a Restricted Free Agent tender. The first is Kalia Davis. Davis is coming off a bad season, but he played a ton. As a former draft pick, the Original Round tender should safely lock him in for $3.7m if the 49ers so choose. Sam Okuayinonu is probably a safer bet to get a tender. He’ll likely be at the Right of First Refusal level ($3.5m). The last player I could see getting a tender is Jake Tonges. Tonges came on frequently when George Kittle was out of the lineup. I could see him being someone they want to keep, also at the Right of First Refusal level.

The Salary Cap

In the image below, each blue bordered rectangle is equivalent to the cap hit of a single player. Within that rectangle, there are more rectangles that break down the player’s cap hit. Areas colored green can be pushed entirely into a future cap years via max restructure. Areas with vertical bars are “locked in” and the team cannot open them up by releasing the player. They represent either fully guaranteed cash that hasn’t been earned yet or remaining proration from cash earned in previous league years.

Cap space isn’t an immediate concern for San Francisco. Still, there really isn’t a ton of extra space available to be created from what you see above. The 49ers won’t have the luxury of a wide open offseason.

I expect Aiyuk to get a Post-June 1st designation when he is ultimately released. His dead cap will amount to $29.6m, but taking it right away will amount to a net decrease in cap space. As such, they’ll split his dead cap into $8.3m in 2026 & $21.2m in 2027. They’ll realize the net cap space gain from that move starting June 2nd.

I have San Francisco in one of the league’s tighter cap situations. I’m estimating $54.2m in “Excess Cap Space” (25th). This is essentially cap space that could be spent on free agents or extensions. In terms of cash spending, I have the 49ers set to spent $327m in 2026 already. This is the highest mark in the league and it will be a far bigger limiter than the cap. I would be surprised to see the team shell out more than $50m in first-year cash for new extensions or free agents this summer unless they get a retirement or unexpectedly move on from one of their highly paid vets.

Draft Capital

The 49ers sent away several Day 3 picks in the upcoming draft for veterans this offseason, but they should be expecting to receive a pair of 4th round compensatory picks plus another in the 5th per OverTheCap projections. With their first pick coming at 27, their overall stockpile of picks is still just 23rd based on my observed trade pick value model.

Recent Team History

New Orleans missed the playoffs for the 5th straight season in 2025, but their 6-11 record produced more real optimism than many have had about the team in several years.

2025 Season

The Saints finished 2025 on a tear. They covered in 7 of their last 8. After their Week 11 bye, New Orleans had the 4th best EPA/play on defense. The offense surged behind rookie QB Tyler Shough. To be fair, this team had a major tailwind from the ease of their schedule down the stretch. After falling 34-10 to the L.A. Rams in Week 9, New Orleans faced exclusively teams that had an offense and defense at or near the bottom half of the league. This team will be in the rare category of missing the playoffs without changing their head coach, coordinators, general manager, or starting QB.

Returning Players

Note that all restructures below are assumed to be max restructures. This means that the team will use void years to prorate cash across up to five seasons, minimizing amount that will hit the current year’s salary cap.

For players who are not vested veterans, I’ve replaced information about the player’s active contract with a description of the team control remaining until the player can become an unrestricted free agent.

When your offense finds a player it can rely on at quarterback, the rest falls into place far more easily. For New Orleans, the offensive line isn’t great, but they could potentially get by with what they have. Veteran Cesar Ruiz had a disappointing 2025 and Erik McCoy once again missed significant time with injury. Kelvin Banks had a great rookie year at tackle and while partner Taliese Fuaga did not perform as well, he’s still in the range of startable. New Orleans will have a busy running back room as I expect they’ll soon replace Alvin Kamara.

Look for this offense to make most of their gains by adding pass catchers this offseason. I liked the addition of Devaughn Vele, but he was probably just a little late to be fully integrated into the offense in 2025. Chris Olave remains top dog and will be due an extension very soon. Jawan Johnson can provide support as well, but a starting caliber receiver is probably in the cards.

The defense powered an impressive close to the season in 2025. Looking to 2026, this is a group that could badly use an injection of young talent, before even considering key veterans who are not under contract. New Orleans had a solid coverage unit on the whole last season despite losing key contributors in Tyrann Mathieu and Paulson Adebo. They’ll look to keep that rolling with much of the same group, especially Kool-Aid McKinstry. The defensive line and linebackers are not in poor shape, but each are in need of at least on more starter.

Expiring Contracts

Even with Alontae Taylor entering free agency with a decent crop of fellow corners, I suspect his versatility may carve out enough of a market that New Orleans lets him walk, much in the same way they let Adebo walk last offseason. The only other two players that I suspect the Saints have circled here are Cameron Jordan and Demario Davis. Both due to turn 37 next year, retirement is likely a serious consideration. From the club standpoint, their soon to void contracts represent modest potential cap savings. If either one wants to play, it would be a no brainer for New Orleans to make them a one year offer prior to their March 10th void dates.

Still in “Cap Hell”?

The Saints annual tradition of appearing to be over the salary cap, only to perform half a dozen obvious restructures has been going on for years. I’ve grown to see it as an exercise that is more carefully planned than most give it credit for, but still not a good place to be as an average-to-bad team. Given that the Saints now have a serious prospect at QB and are only narrowly over the cap, are they free from “Cap Hell”?

I would argue not entirely. I define “Cap Hell” pretty narrowly as a team that is forced to consider the cap implications of a cut/trade/extension/re-sign rather than just the cash implications. Looking only at the cash owed in the current year (plus any future guarantees) should be sufficient to evaluate whether a move for a player makes sense for a team. “Cap Hell” starts whenever a team’s cap situation limits them from spending or moving cash in the same way a team with a wide open cap situation might.

To make this more real, I mentioned above that Cam Jordan & Demario Davis could accept one year deals with New Orleans prior to their void dates. Doing so would allow the Saints more cap freedom. If the camps of these players are able to use the Saints cap situation to exact any leverage at all, I would call that “Cap Hell”. If they couldn’t add additional pressure to Tennessee or Las Vegas or Washington (teams with plenty of cap space) if the contract were being negotiated with them, then your cap situation has potentially cost additional cash.

Projected Cuts & Options

I have just one cut being made by New Orleans, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see more. I believe RB Alvin Kamara, who will be 31 next year, will either be cut or renegotiate the final year of his contract. He’s due to earn $8.5m of non-guaranteed cash in 2026. With the Saints current crop of backs (Kendre Miller, Devin Neal, Audric Estime), I believe the groundwork for Kamara’s exit has already been made.

The Saints could exercise the 5th year option on DT Bryan Bresee for 2027 this offseason. I do not expect them to do it.

The Salary Cap

In the image below, each blue bordered rectangle is equivalent to the cap hit of a single player. Within that rectangle, there are more rectangles that break down the player’s cap hit. Areas colored green can be pushed entirely into a future cap years via max restructure. Areas with vertical bars are “locked in” and the team cannot open them up by releasing the player. They represent either fully guaranteed cash that hasn’t been earned yet or remaining proration from cash earned in previous league years.

Before any moves have been made, the Saints current roster is only projected to be about $8m over the salary cap. Just taking restructures on guaranteed cash alone should get them far enough under that number that they’ll be able to operate freely.

In the breakdown above, I’m assuming New Orleans will take every possible max restructure (they won’t, but they may leave the option open), cut Kamara, and allow the contracts of Jordan, Davis, and Taysom Hill to void. That leaves them with $37m in “Excess Cap Space” (29th) to be used for extensions, free agents, and trades. If Cam Jordan signs before his void date, I’d say that’ll add another $8m or so. Davis could tack $7m on to that. In terms of planned cash spending at this point, I have New Orleans under $200m with only six other clubs, most of whom have $100m+ in excess space. This paradox is a consequence of overspending from prior seasons.

Draft Capital

New Orleans holds a pick in each of the first six rounds plus an extra in 4th & 5th. The 4th is a projected compensatory pick by OverTheCap and has yet to be confirmed. The Saints first pick will be #8. My trade based model gives them the 10th most valuable collection of picks in this draft.

Recent Team History

The Titans completed their 2025 season with their second consecutive three win season. I thought there was some chance they’d turn things over quickly if Cam Ward was a superstar right out of the gate, but most were probably not surprised to see a repeat of 2024 given the overall state of the roster.

2025 Season

Head Coach Brian Callahan gave up play-calling responsibilities just a few games in to the season and he was ultimately fired after the Titans began the year 1-5. Tennessee can hang their hat on playing four playoff teams (Denver, Houston, Seattle, and the L.A. Chargers) to within a touchdown. On the flip side though, they lost 9 games by double digits.

A New Coaching Staff

At the end of the season, Tennessee began their head coaching search in earnest. They settled on San Francisco DC and former N.Y. Jets head coach Robert Saleh. Salah will be bringing Gus Bradley with him as defensive coordinator. Bradley was an assistant in San Francisco last year after a 16 year run as either a NFL head coach or coordinator. Salah’s offensive coordinator will be recent N.Y. Giants head coach Brian Daboll. Tennessee likely realized they errored in retaining Callahan for a second year. Ideally, you’d like to hire your GM & head coach at the same time. Still, I think this is a solid group of established coaches that have as good a chance as any to right the ship.

Returning Players

Note that all restructures below are assumed to be max restructures. This means that the team will use void years to prorate cash across up to five seasons, minimizing amount that will hit the current year’s salary cap.

For players who are not vested veterans, I’ve replaced information about the player’s active contract with a description of the team control remaining until the player can become an unrestricted free agent.

It wasn’t a great rookie year for Cam Ward, but it’s also hard to get a great feel for what he might be able to do for a team in a situation where he has a more serious supporting cast. Tennessee’s free agent headliner, LT Dan Moore, was not good, but to be completely fair, it wasn’t a major step back from how he performed prior to his arrival. The brightest spot for this offense was LG Peter Skoronski, Tennessee’s 2023 first round pick. Skoronski, who can have his 5th year option exercised this summer, finally broke out with a strong season.

With the state of this roster, Jeffery Simmons will surely be mentioned as a potential trade candidate. Perhaps selling high is the best long-term move, but I would be shocked if Tennessee moved this direction. He still should have another year or two before age regression and this team will no doubt be preparing to compete at some point in that window. Teammate T’Vondre Sweat followed up a strong rookie year with more great play. Those two will be a top interior duo for as long as the Titans allow them to be, but they won’t have much backup. I’m not sure if Tennessee even has another NFL starter caliber player among their defensive linemen or linebackers right now. I expect to see some continuity in the secondary, but it’s not a strong group to begin with.

Expiring Contracts

Joey Slye might be among the only free agents that Tennessee gives serious consideration to bringing back. I fear Kevin Zeitler (36) and Sebastian Joseph-Day (31) may be too old for this team to spend serious money on. Perhaps they’ll make an exception for Arden Key given how desperate they will be for edge rusher talent.

The 2024 Free Agent Class

It’s easy to look at a team and claim they keep compounding mistakes that dig a deeper hole. With Tennessee, many of these mistakes were made at the same time. Tennessee signed six players to multi-year deals in the first two weeks of the 2024 league year. Here are those players and what the Titans paid them in 2024 & 2025 combined:

• Calvin Ridley - $50m

• L’Jarius Sneed - $42.9m + 2025 3rd & 7th swap

• Lloyd Cushenberry - $29.7m

• Chidobe Awuzie - $18m (cut after 2024)

• Tony Pollard - $14.5m

• Kenneth Murray - $7.9m (traded for 6th-7th swap in 2024)

These six non-QBs cost $163m plus a net loss of draft capital. Once this offseason begins, I suspect Tennessee may be down to just one or two of these players, if any. This is a rare series of misses, but it has clearly been a driving force for this team’s struggles.

To add insult to injury, the Titans would also send Malik Willis to Green Bay for a 7th round pick. On top of serving as a competent backup, Willis may soon return Green Bay a solid 2027 compensatory pick.

Projected Tags & Cuts

I’m not including ERFA eligible players here (expiring contracts with less than 3 accrued seasons), as they can either sign a league minimum contract or the team can allow them to leave.

As I had just touched on, the 2024 free agent class continues to serve as an anchor to this team. I could imagine all four players still playing under those contracts will be cut this offseason, but I’m not quite sold on Tony Pollard. L’Jarius Sneed is the easiest decision. Lloyd Cushenberry is coming off two very poor seasons and there should be replacements available. Perhaps there might be an attempt to trade Calvin Ridley just because of his past success and overall temperature of the wide receiver market, but I ultimately don’t see him back in Tennessee on his current contract.

Aside from cuts, I’m thinking CB Darrell Baker is in line for the Right of First Refusal RFA tender. I am estimating that Tennessee can pick up Peter Skoronski’s 5th year option in 2027 at a cost of $20.5m. The number is calculated on all offensive linemen, so it’s a little heavy for a guard, but I think Tennessee will take it. It’s a situation where they’re in no condition to turn down extra years of team control at market price.

The Salary Cap

In the image below, each blue bordered rectangle is equivalent to the cap hit of a single player. Within that rectangle, there are more rectangles that break down the player’s cap hit. Areas colored green can be pushed entirely into a future cap years via max restructure. Areas with vertical bars are “locked in” and the team cannot open them up by releasing the player. They represent either fully guaranteed cash that hasn’t been earned yet or remaining proration from cash earned in previous league years.

Cap space shouldn’t be a consideration for Tennessee in any form. Their focus should be getting good young players at good numbers as frequently as they can.

At $181m of cash penciled in to be spent right now, I have Tennessee as the league’s lowest spender. With no major extensions to work on, expect to see them spend another year trying to turn a free agent class into the catalyst that turns the franchise around.

Draft Capital

The Titans will make 8 picks in the 2026 draft with their first selection coming at 4. As you may expect, Tennessee posses as haul that my trade-based draft pick model sees among the five most valuable.

Recent Team History

Calling 2025 a shock would be putting it mildly. After 9 consecutive AFC West championships, 7 consecutive trips to the AFC title game, and 5 trips to the Super Bowl in 6 seasons, Kansas City failed to make the postseason for the first time since 2014. To add insult to injury, Patrick Mahomes suffered a torn ACL mere minutes before the team was eliminated from playoff contention. As we can see above, this was a squad that was better than their record indicated, but a dynasty that has been due for a some rocky times.

2025 Season

Kansas City got off to a solid start, entering November with a record of 5-3. Things would soon fall apart as they transitioned to a more difficult stretch of their schedule. Over their final nine games, KC covered the spread just one time, a seven point loss on Christmas Day, quarterbacked by Chris Oladokun.

A Familiar Face as OC

Matt Nagy’s second stint as offensive coordinator closed with the expiration of his contract. Now, Eric Bieniemy will try his hand with a second stint at that post. Andy Reid will turn 68 next month and will remain the coach for at least one more season. It feels to me that we’re inching closer to bigger changes.

Returning Players

Note that all restructures below are assumed to be max restructures. This means that the team will use void years to prorate cash across up to five seasons, minimizing amount that will hit the current year’s salary cap.

For players who are not vested veterans, I’ve replaced information about the player’s active contract with a description of the team control remaining until the player can become an unrestricted free agent.

The returning offense has some considerable holes. Kansas City did not boast a strong group of pass-catchers last year and they’ll be even worse off in 2026 unless they can add some talent. K.C. entered the season with three potential starters at offensive tackle when they signed Jaylon Moore and spent a first round pick on Josh Simmons with Jawaan Taylor returning as a 2024 starter. At least one of those players is likely to go and I expect it will be Taylor. The interior offensive line should be the strength of the offense with back-to-back All-Pro Creed Humphrey, recently extended Trey Smith, and 2024 second round pick Kingsley Suamataia.

Star defensive lineman Chris Jones remains one of the highest paid non-QBs in football with $35m set to be earned in 2026, but he’s coming off a down year. He’ll have a little guaranteed money next year, so he’s already profiling as a potential cap casualty at this time next year. The back half of the defense had a number of reliable contributors, although they won’t get all of them back without working out some new deals. This is a solid defense that is going to want to shore up the pass rush in free agency or the draft.

Expiring Contracts

K.C. is looking at an extensive list of expiring contracts. Future Hall of Famer Travis Kelce tops the list, heading into a season where he will turn 37. Kelce is still a very good player. There are a variety of realistic possibilities for what his 2026 holds. Kansas City will also be losing both of their top running backs to free agency in Isiah Pacheco & Kareem Hunt. On defense, DBs Bryan Cook and Jaylen Watson should have plenty of potential suitors. Linebacker Leo Chenal has been a solid contributor throughout his rookie contract. He might head to a team that can give him more of a full-time role. Kansas City has netted at least one comp pick in six straight drafts. Even with a weakening roster, they’re shaping up to keep that streak going.

Projected Cuts

I’m expecting three cuts for Kansas City this offseason. As I mentioned above, Jawaan Taylor looks like the odd man out at tackle. I’m anticipating two more cuts on defense. The first for edge rusher Mike Danna and the other for corner Kristian Fulton. Fulton is a rare case where he’s looking at a cut while still being owed guaranteed money in 2026. This past season, Fulton played just 29 defensive snaps in the first 15 weeks. He played a larger role in the final three contests after Kansas City was knocked out the playoffs. His remaining $5m just isn’t worth it if he isn’t due to get significant playing time.

The Salary Cap

In the image below, each blue bordered rectangle is equivalent to the cap hit of a single player. Within that rectangle, there are more rectangles that break down the player’s cap hit. Areas colored green can be pushed entirely into a future cap years via max restructure. Areas with vertical bars are “locked in” and the team cannot open them up by releasing the player. They represent either fully guaranteed cash that hasn’t been earned yet or remaining proration from cash earned in previous league years.

Kansas City is currently over the 2026 cap. Patrick Mahomes has already been restructured, but he won’t be the last player to get that treatment. They’ll have plenty of options with multiple players having fully guaranteed salaries.

With the assumptions above, I have Kansas City currently planning to spend $286m in 2026 (7th) before free agency or extensions. Even with big question marks at the skill positions and facing a bit of turnover on defense, the club will need to be prudent with spending. For the first time in over a decade, I have real questions about where this franchise is heading.

Draft Capital

Kansas City holds their own selections in the first five rounds plus they should be expecting to receive a comp pick. Their first pick in the draft will be at the 9th overall pick.

Recent Team History

For the second time in the 8 years since drafting Lamar Jackson, Baltimore missed out on the playoffs. Unfortunately, that success has only translated to a single trip to a conference championship game.

2025 Season

Baltimore began the season with an incredibly difficult stretch of games. Before their bye week, they faced off with five of the seven other teams who appeared in the 2024 divisional playoffs. The Ravens dropped all five of those games and battled a smattering of injuries at the same time. Their post-bye schedule eased up quite a bit. Baltimore won five straight to get back to 0.500, but could not complete the comeback. Their season ended with a loss to Pittsburgh in the final game of the regular season.

Replacing John Harbaugh

After 18 years of success, Baltimore cut ties with head coach John Harbaugh. Harbaugh took the Ravens to the playoffs 12 times and delivered a Super Bowl. The Ravens won more than 60% of their regular season games under Harbaugh, one of four teams to do so (NE, PIT, & GB). Harbaugh’s exit comes two offseasons after Super Bowl winning head coach Mike Macdonald was hired by Seattle. Baltimore is looking to rebound with a different young defensive minded coach in Jesse Minter. Minter is coming off an impressive two year run as the Chargers defensive coordinator. Minter is bringing in another young mind in Declan Doyle to serve as offensive coordinator, a role he previously held in Chicago. Anthony Weaver has been tapped as defensive coordinator. Weaver spent the last two seasons with Miami.

Returning Players

Note that all restructures below are assumed to be max restructures. This means that the team will use void years to prorate cash across up to five seasons, minimizing amount that will hit the current year’s salary cap.

For players who are not vested veterans, I’ve replaced information about the player’s active contract with a description of the team control remaining until the player can become an unrestricted free agent.

Baltimore’s offense will return several key players for 2026. At the top of that list is Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. Mark Andrews and Zay Flowers look like the primary pass catchers for now. Ronnie Stanley and Roger Rosengarten make for a solid pair of returning offensive tackles.

2025 was a down year for the Baltimore defense, especially in the early going. They lost Nnamdi Madubuike for the season in Week 2 and there still isn’t a ton of clarity around the defensive star’s status. Madubuike’s absence coincides with a breakout season from Travis Jones. Jones efforts were not enough to life the Ravens pass rush, which ranked 29th in QB pressure rate this past season. Other pieces on defense are solid. Roquan Smith remains one of the best linebackers in football. Kyle Hamilton leads a talented young secondary that may soon get even younger.

Expiring Contracts

The headliner for this free agent class is center Tyler Linderbaum. Baltimore passed on Linderbaum’s 2026 5th year option (equal to the franchise tag) last year because it would have blown the top off the leaguewide center market. Whether he returns to Baltimore or not, he should be expected to set the market. He’s been graded by PFF in the 79th percentile or better for three straight years now. Versatile offensive threats Patrick Ricard and Isaiah Likely are also heading for free agency. On defense, the Ravens could opt to bring back some defensive line depth or a couple older defensive backs.

Projected Cuts & Options

I’m not including ERFA eligible players here (expiring contracts with less than 3 accrued seasons), as they can either sign a league minimum contract or the team can allow them to leave.

I have one cap casualty on tap for Baltimore: CB Marlon Humphrey. Humphrey has spent nine seasons with the team, but I think it’s time for him to move on. He has a $4m roster bonus due on March 15th, putting a finite deadline on the decision to cut (or reduce pay).

Similar to Linderbaum above, the Ravens are a victim of their own success when it comes to 5th year options. Zay Flowers was voted into his second Pro Bowl this season on the first ballot which will bump up his 2027 option to match the 2026 franchise tag. At an estimated $28.8m, it’s a big number for a player who has not quite distinguished himself as a true star. Unlike Linderbaum, I think Baltimore ultimately picks this option up.

The Salary Cap

In the image below, each blue bordered rectangle is equivalent to the cap hit of a single player. Within that rectangle, there are more rectangles that break down the player’s cap hit. Areas colored green can be pushed entirely into a future cap years via max restructure. Areas with vertical bars are “locked in” and the team cannot open them up by releasing the player. They represent either fully guaranteed cash that hasn’t been earned yet or remaining proration from cash earned in previous league years.

Baltimore is currently under the cap. They can create additional space with restructures to Jackson & Madubuike’s fully guaranteed money if they so choose.

I’m currently projecting the Ravens to have $75.2m in cap space (23rd) if they take all their restructures after handling draft picks and practice squaders. It’ll be enough to operate with, but they won’t have the freedom of some other clubs.

Draft Capital

The Ravens hold each of their first five original picks in the draft. They’re also projected to net four compensatory picks, two in the 5th & two in the 7th. Their first selection will come at #14 overall.

Recent Team History

The Harbaugh/Hortiz era of Chargers football has been off to a solid start all things considered, even without a playoff win. In the last two years, the Chargers have 22 regular season wins, tied for the 7th most.

2025 Season

LA’s defense was frequently the driving force behind wins in 2025. The offense turned in just 3 games above the 75th percentile all season.

Coordinator Changes

The Chargers defensive success did not go unnoticed. Coordinator Jesse Minter was tapped to replace John Harbaugh as the head coach in Baltimore. The Chargers failures on offense did not go unnoticed either. Greg Roman was fired following L.A.’s lifeless 3-point offensive showing in their playoff loss. They upgraded immediately, bringing in Mike McDaniel to lead the offense. McDaniel was thought to be a leading candidate to land another head coaching job after being fired by Miami. Chris O’Leary is returning to the franchise as defensive coordinator after spending a year in the college ranks.

Returning Players

Note that all restructures below are assumed to be max restructures. This means that the team will use void years to prorate cash across up to five seasons, minimizing amount that will hit the current year’s salary cap.

For players who are not vested veterans, I’ve replaced information about the player’s active contract with a description of the team control remaining until the player can become an unrestricted free agent.

I’m a big fan of what the Chargers have to work with on offense. They may look to bring in one more contributor at wide receiver or possibly a tight end with more blocking chops than promising rookie Oronde Gadsden II, but it’s easy to feel good about where this team is at with skill positions players. Justin Herbert remains a strong centerpiece for this team.

It was no secret that the Achillies heel for L.A. last year was their offensive line. Established left tackle Rayshawn Slater suffered a season-ending injury in training camp just two weeks after inking a huge extension. Joe Alt flipped to from right to left tackle (the position he played in college) as a result. Alt was great when available, but could only log six starts before also suffering a season-ending injury in Week 9. The interior of the Chargers offensive line did nothing to help the situation. 2025 free agency signing Mekhi Becton, Bradley Bozeman, and 2022 first-round pick Zion Johnson made up the worst interior trio in football. It’s possible the Chargers ended the season with maybe one or two offensive lineman who even qualify as solid depth pieces. Expect a big jump here when both starting tackles return and they can hit the reset button at center & guard.

L.A. already has the foundation of a solid coverage group under contract in 2026. The focus this offseason from a personnel standpoint should be replacing production lost in the pass rush. They’ve already started working toward this by retaining Teair Tart.

Expiring Contracts

Khalil Mack & Odafe Oweh are the key players here. Even with neither serving a true full-time role last season, they were a big part of the defensive success. L.A. should probably work to get at least one of them back, as this level of pass rush production will not come any cheaper later in the offseason.

Projected Cuts & Option

I’m not including ERFA eligible players here (expiring contracts with less than 3 accrued seasons), as they can either sign a league minimum contract or the team can allow them to leave.

I have the Chargers starting with a clean slate on the interior offensive line this offseason, releasing Bradley Bozeman and Mekhi Becton. Becton is set to earn $10m (all non-guaranteed) in 2026, including $2.5m due in a roster bonus on March 13th. I also suspect they’ll look to part ways with TE Will Dissly. I don’t think Bud Dupree will be cut, but he’s on the cut/retirement radar.

L.A. will need to decide if they want to pick up the 5th year option on WR Quentin Johnston’s rookie contract this spring. His case is one of the tougher calls in 2023 class. At an estimated $18m, his fully guaranteed option year will likely make him one of the top 32 highest paid WRs in 2027. It’s a little pricey for a player who has had a tendency to disappear from time-to-time, but I think they’ll pick it up.

The Salary Cap

In the image below, each blue bordered rectangle is equivalent to the cap hit of a single player. Within that rectangle, there are more rectangles that break down the player’s cap hit. Areas colored green can be pushed entirely into a future cap years via max restructure. Areas with vertical bars are “locked in” and the team cannot open them up by releasing the player. They represent either fully guaranteed cash that hasn’t been earned yet or remaining proration from cash earned in previous league years.

I sometimes see analysts refer to a team’s cap situation as “clean”. This would accurately describe where the Chargers are. I would posit, however, that “clean” is just another way to say “empty”. A team with a franchise QB in his prime, a pair of great tackles, a couple decent young weapons on offense, and a defense coming off back-to-back seasons in the 80th percentile should not want to see a cap sheet this lean. With a few more pieces, I’d put this team up against any other. The problem is that you can only spend so much responsibly in one offseason. If they take a few more chances in previous offseasons, this might be a team that is already shaping up as a Super Bowl favorite. I still believe they can become a top-tier contender, they’d just have a clearer path with a few more boxes checked off. L.A.’s current state should be a cautionary tale to teams that are too patient waiting for their window.

Based on the assumptions above, I have the Chargers currently penciled in to spend $181m, lower than any team in the league. They have a few extensions they can put money toward, but most of their spending should be geared to taking on an expensive star or two (someone like Trey Hendrickson, Tyler Linderbaum, or even a trade for A.J. Brown or George Pickens) that can elevate them to a true contender. I really like this team and think there is potential to break out in 2026 if they’re willing to take a leap of faith.

Draft Capital

Trades for Odafe Oweh and Elijah Molden cost L.A. their fifth & seventh round picks in this draft respectively. Currently, OverTheCap projects the team will add an extra sixth as a compensatory pick. This collection of picks comes in at 22nd most valuable on my trade based pick value chart, matching when the Chargers will make their first selection.

Recent Team History

For the third time in four years, Arizona placed last in the NFC West. It was a season to forget that culminated in the firing of head coach Jonathan Gannon after three season.

2025 Season

Entering their Week 8 bye, Arizona was 2-5 and coming off five straight losses by four points or less. They beat Dallas in their first game after on Monday Night Football, but the dam soon broke. Arizona closed out the 2025 season with nine straight losses, six of which were by 17+ points.

New Offensive Brain Trust

Mike LaFleur is set to take over as the head coach of the Cardinals in 2026 after spending the last three seasons as offensive coordinator for the division rival L.A. Rams. LaFleur will bring on Nathaniel Hackett, who has four previous stints as an offensive coordinator and was once a head coach. In three of those five positions, Hackett was either fired or had his play-calling duties stripped in the middle of the season. LaFleur will begin his tenure as the primary play caller.

Returning Players

Note that all restructures below are assumed to be max restructures. This means that the team will use void years to prorate cash across up to five seasons, minimizing amount that will hit the current year’s salary cap.

For players who are not vested veterans, I’ve replaced information about the player’s active contract with a description of the team control remaining until the player can become an unrestricted free agent.

Arizona ran through a series of running backs last season after a spate of injuries at the position. The new offensive staff will have some options with how they proceed there. At receiver, Michael Wilson strung together several strong performances after an unremarkable two and a half years to start his career. Opposite Wilson, 2024 fourth overall pick Marvin Harrison Jr. hasn’t yet met his lofty pre-draft expectations. Another pass-catcher, Trey McBride, might be the best of the group. Arizona should be able to get something out of this talented young group. Paris Johnson Jr. missed the conclusion of the 2025 season with an MCL sprain, but he’s reliably the future for the Cardinals at left tackle. He’ll be thinking contract extension very soon.

Arizona no doubt felt that their defense would be a strength in 2025. Unfortunately, they’re coming out of the season with a lot of uncertainty. There are multiple cap casualty candidates on the defensive line with no younger players that are standing out. Budda Baker may be showing signs of aging and it’s hard to bank on anyone else in the secondary at this point.

Expiring Contracts

Jalen Thompson is probably the most valuable player in this pending free agent class. Calais Campbell remains a productive and valuable player, but will be 40 to start the 2026 season.

Kyler Murray

Jacoby Brissett took over for an injured Kyler Murray in Week 6, but Murray never officially returned and his time in Arizona may be done. Murray’s contract extends for the next three seasons and $36.8m is currently fully guaranteed with another $19.5m vesting on March 15th. With that in mind, the Cardinals need to decide before March 15th if a trade can be arranged or if they’ll be forced to cut the former top overall pick.

A cut would probably be a post-June 1st designation. If the contract went untouched, Arizona’s dead cap hit would consist of $47.5m in 2025 & $7.2m in 2026. However, the team could restructure some portion of Murray’s contract to even out those numbers, which would provide something closer to an even split of the total $54.7m dead cap hit.

I think a trade is the most likely outcome here. The Cardinals could offer to pay down the fully guaranteed portion of Murray’s 2026 compensation ($36.8m) in advance of the trade, leaving Arizona with a single $54.7m dead cap hit in 2026. The new team would pick up $5.7m in 2026, but would also inherit Murray’s 2027 fully guaranteed salary ($19.5m) that vests on March 15th. If the new team wanted to keep Murray into 2027, it would only cost them $16.8m. This proposition, essentially a $42m/2yr contract with $25.2m guaranteed at signing, is preferable to the $40m/2yr with $30m guaranteed at signing that Justin Fields signed last year as an unrestricted free agent with the Jets. It’s a relatively small deviation from the worst case for Arizona in terms of dead cap and I would think this should net them at least an early Day 3 pick in return.

Projected Tags & Cuts

I’m not including ERFA eligible players here (expiring contracts with less than 3 accrued seasons), as they can either sign a league minimum contract or the team can allow them to leave.

I’m anticipating that Arizona will place an original round restricted free agent tender on kicker Chad Ryland. Not that it matters, but Ryland was drafted in the 4th round. The difference between the original round tender and the right of first refusal tender in a case like this is enormous. Arizona will spend less than $200k more than the right of first refusal tender and make Ryland untouchable. I would not rule out that Bam Knight or Emari Demercado could also receive an RFA tender, but I’m not planning on it for now. They would both be at the RoFR level.

As far cuts, I have quite a few for Arizona. The biggest is Dalvin Tomlinson. This will be Tomlinson’s second straight year as a cap casualty after Cleveland let him go a year ago. Sean Murphy-Bunting was placed on the Non-Football Injury list last May. He’s due to earn $7.5m in 2026 which needs to be locked in starter money. With no changes at GM or defensive coordinator, this is a spot where a pay cut could be in play depending on the Murphy-Bunting’s health. Bilal Nichols started the year on the Physically Unable to Perform list last year and finished it on IR. His last two years have been ugly and he’s out of guarantees in the final year of his deal. Left guard Evan Brown closes things out. He’s due to earn $5m in 2026, but was a healthy scratch in each of the last five games of 2025.

I would also keep and eye on running back James Conner. He’s due to earn $8m in 2026. I presume he’s penciled in as the starter, but at 31 and coming off an injury it’s a big commitment for a running back. Conner has a $1m roster bonus coming to him on March 15th. If Arizona can’t work something out, he’ll hit the market before then.

The Salary Cap

In the image below, each blue bordered rectangle is equivalent to the cap hit of a single player. Within that rectangle, there are more rectangles that break down the player’s cap hit. Areas colored green can be pushed entirely into a future cap years via max restructure. Areas with vertical bars are “locked in” and the team cannot open them up by releasing the player. They represent either fully guaranteed cash that hasn’t been earned yet or remaining proration from cash earned in previous league years.

The Cardinals are well under the cap as of now. Even dumping Kyler Murray this year would not put them in danger of cap compliance.

The “Excess Cap Space” I have for Arizona is right about at the league average. As mentioned above, they can afford to swallow Kyler Murray’s full dead cap hit in 2026 and have some room to maneuver after. Arizona has some talent, but it’ll take a splashy offseason to make them a true 2026 competitor.

Draft Capital

Arizona holds all of their own picks going forward and nothing more. Their first pick will be 3rd overall and next will be 34th. I’m partial to using early picks on athletic, productive edge rushers with a roster as wide open as this.

Recent Team History

For the sixth time in seven seasons under Matt LaFleur, Green Bay earned a spot in the playoffs. It was also the sixth time in seven seasons that Green Bay has fielded an offense in the 75th percentile or better. Still, the result was not a satisfying one.

2025 Season

Expectations for Green Bay were sky high after shoring up the defense by trading for Micah Parsons before the start of the season. Through Week 14, the defense was right around the league average despite Parsons best efforts, but the offense had carried the load enough to get to 9-3-1. Unfortunately, that would be the peak of the season. Parsons was lost for the season in Week 15 and the Packers wouldn’t win another game. When Jeff Hafley was hired by Miami at the end of the season, Green Bay would eventually hire former Arizona head coach Jonathan Gannon to fill his defensive coordinator role.

Returning Players

Note that all restructures below are assumed to be max restructures. This means that the team will use void years to prorate cash across up to five seasons, minimizing amount that will hit the current year’s salary cap.

For players who are not vested veterans, I’ve replaced information about the player’s active contract with a description of the team control remaining until the player can become an unrestricted free agent.

Green Bay’s hope of supplementing a plus group of skill players on offense with a strong offensive line in 2025 never really panned out. Aaron Banks inked a $27m signing bonus in the first week of unrestricted free agency and may now be one-and-done. 2024 first round pick Jordan Morgan turned in some underwhelming starts at guard, but did have a few promising showings at tackle to close the year. Elgton Jenkins held out for more guaranteed money last offseason to no avail. Really, freshly extended Zach Tom was the only Packer lineman to feel good about in 2025.

Micah Parsons proved to be a huge addition to Green Bay’s pass rush. The secondary as a whole exceeded my expectations. The bigger problem in my view was the defensive front surrounding Parsons not carrying enough of the load.

Expiring Contracts

The Green Bay free agent class might pack more punch than any in the league. At the same time, you can make a good argument that the Packers can live without all of their key free agents. I would say all four of the major pieces (Malik Willis, Romeo Doubs, Rasheed Walker, and Quay Walker) all have a good chance of slotting in as 4th round compensatory picks, maybe even 3rd round if any of their markets really heat up. With the depth this team has at WR, OL, LB, and QB, it might just make more sense to see what is available in the trade market to fill other needs (like G/C, CB, or IDL). Personally, I’m eager to see where Doubs lands. I would put him against any other free agent WR for what his market appears to be.

Projected Tags & Cuts

I’m not including ERFA eligible players here (expiring contracts with less than 3 accrued seasons), as they can either sign a league minimum contract or the team can allow them to leave.

Even if Darian Kinnard isn’t profiling as a starter in 2026, he’s had enough solid outings that Green Bay should keep under team control as a swing tackle at a minimum. His original round tender ($3.7m) is fine for a backup. I think Green Bay might use another tender, this time the $3.5m right of first refusal, on RB Emanuel Wilson.

As far as cuts, there are more than might be expected from a team that had a mostly successful season. Elgton Jenkins and Aaron Banks are due to earn $20m & $18m respectfully, which is just too much for the level they played at in 2025. Green Bay should have enough depth to find suitable fill-ins already on the roster. On defense, Rashan Gary had maybe his worst season so far. Even with Parsons expected to be on the mend early in the season, Gary’s $19.5m might be a little rich. In the secondary, I’m thinking Nate Hobbs will join Aaron Banks as a cut, putting both of the Packers big 2025 free agent acquisitions back on the market.

This offseason, Green Bay can exercise Lucas Van Ness’s $14m fully guaranteed option year in 2027. It’s right on the line, but if they’re going to release Gary I think they’ll take it.

The Salary Cap

In the image below, each blue bordered rectangle is equivalent to the cap hit of a single player. Within that rectangle, there are more rectangles that break down the player’s cap hit. Areas colored green can be pushed entirely into a future cap years via max restructure. Areas with vertical bars are “locked in” and the team cannot open them up by releasing the player. They represent either fully guaranteed cash that hasn’t been earned yet or remaining proration from cash earned in previous league years.

Green Bay is right on the cap as it is. They have less restructures remaining than a lot of teams, so the fact that they can afford to let some high priced players either leave in free agency or be released is going to give them the flexibility to bring in new talent.

Green Bay’s $47.4m in “Excess Cap Space” is the 6th smallest amount in the league. That sounds like a lack of flexibility, but the reality is that it can stretch quite a bit. I only have the Packers on the hook for $230m in cash commitments right now (23rd). With a franchise QB on the books already, they really do have more room to operate than meets the eye. If I were to bet, I’d say Green Bay will make a trade or two on the veteran trade market.

Draft Capital

The Packers used a pair of first round picks to spring their big Parsons trade with Dallas. Outside of that, they’ve still got all of their original picks plus potentially a pair of 7th round compensatory picks. With their first pick not coming until 52, Green Bay has the least draft capital in the league.

Recent Team History

A year removed from a trip to the NFC Championship, Washington could not recapture the magic that put them on the cusp of a Super Bowl. Injuries played a major role, but the defense took a step back from a poor 2024 season even.

2025 Season

Jaden Daniels came off of a Rookie of the Year campaign in 2024 to a seemingly upgraded roster. Unfortunately, he couldn’t stay healthy. Daniels had four different stints as the starter over the course of the 2025 season before being shut down for the season.

A New Coaching Staff

Washington moved on from both their offensive and defensive coordinators following the regular season. David Blough will be promoted to take over as offensive coordinator and Daronte Jones joins the staff from Minnesota to take over as defensive coordinator.

Returning Players

Note that all restructures below are assumed to be max restructures. This means that the team will use void years to prorate cash across up to five seasons, minimizing amount that will hit the current year’s salary cap.

For players who are not vested veterans, I’ve replaced information about the player’s active contract with a description of the team control remaining until the player can become an unrestricted free agent.

Laremy Tunsil was the Commanders big offseason addition. He delivered a strong season at left tackle, but aside from Sam Cosmi and Tyler Biadasz, the rest of the offensive line played poorly. Recently extended receiver Terry McLaurin missed seven games despite never missing a game in the previous four consecutive seasons. McLaurin did not record a 100-yard receiving game for the first time in his six year career. He had five such games in 2024.

On offense, it isn’t that hard to be optimistic about this team. Defense is another story. I’m not sure there is one returning defender who this team should feel confident about in 2026. It speaks to how close Washington’s front office believed they were when assembling their roster this past offseason.

Expiring Contracts

When looking at the long list of pending free agents for Washington, I’m struck by how many are older than 30. This is an exceptionally old team. For their own good in the long-run, I’m unsure if the Commanders should chase any of these players for a dollar more than they’re worth before free agency.

Projected Cuts

I could imagine Washington taking a more or less aggressive line on cap casualties based on where they see this season heading. If I were to guess, I’d say Daron Payne will be released. Payne is a few years removed from his best seasons and is now finally into a year with no guarantees remaining on his deal signed in 2023. I feel more confident that Washington will walk away from former New Orleans star Marshon Lattimore. Lattimore hasn’t been a good player since Washington acquired him at he 2024 trade deadline. They should get off of this deal and get younger in the secondary. The last cut I’m projecting is Nick Allegretti. Allegretti served primarily as a backup and earned $2.5m in 2025. His 2026 earnings are set to be $6m. This is just not a suitable number for a backup. Maybe they renegotiate, but if not he’ll be a free agent.

The Salary Cap

In the image below, each blue bordered rectangle is equivalent to the cap hit of a single player. Within that rectangle, there are more rectangles that break down the player’s cap hit. Areas colored green can be pushed entirely into a future cap years via max restructure. Areas with vertical bars are “locked in” and the team cannot open them up by releasing the player. They represent either fully guaranteed cash that hasn’t been earned yet or remaining proration from cash earned in previous league years.

As it stands, Washington has more cap space than they can use. This is partially a function of signing shorter contracts with older players.

The Commanders’ team building approach hasn’t been a total dud. They have a very clean cap situation, which to be fair, is not necessarily where you want to be when your young QB could be hitting his prime. As is always the case, this is downstream of whiffing repeatedly in the draft. Washington has no practical limit to what they can spend this offseason. If they like a player and the timeline and price make sense, they can go for it.

Draft Capital

As a result of the Tunsil trade, Washington is missing their own picks in the 2nd & 4th rounds. They own an extra 6th from trading Brian Robinson to San Francisco. On my trade based pick value model, I have their set of picks as the 17th most valuable. Their first pick will be 7th overall.

Recent Team History

Cincinnati missed the playoffs for the third consecutive season after back-to-back AFC Championship Game appearances. The defense regressed to the level that we saw when the Bengals won just 12 games from 2018 to 2020.

2025 Season

For Cincinnati, 2025 was defined by some of the same issues we’ve seen derail this franchise in the last several years: a serious injury to star QB Joe Burrow, poor pass protection, and inadequate defense. Burrow kicked the season off with a pair of wins, but then landed on IR. Jake Browning was unable to successfully take the reigns and the Bengals traded the Browns to bring in Joe Flacco until Burrow could return.

Running It Back

The Bengals are, for the most part, not making any major changes heading into 2026. They’ll be a rare non-playoff team that retains their head coach, GM, coordinators, and starting quarterback.

Returning Players

Note that all restructures below are assumed to be max restructures. This means that the team will use void years to prorate cash across up to five seasons, minimizing amount that will hit the current year’s salary cap.

For players who are not vested veterans, I’ve replaced information about the player’s active contract with a description of the team control remaining until the player can become an unrestricted free agent.

The Bengals trio of Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins delivered a solid performances when available, but they didn’t have much help. Among the four returning starters on the offensive line with at least 8 starts, none were graded better than the 34th percentile by PFF. I have Orlando Brown Jr. as a cut right now, but he’s on the borderline. It’ll be difficult to find a trustworthy tackle at less than the $14m he’s owed in 2026.

I see the Bengals as having a solid set of corners in Dax Hill and D.J. Turner, while the “spine” of the defense (inside defensive line, linebackers, and safety) is where they have the most room for improvement. In a lot of ways, you have to build those rooms out brick by brick. This unit may remain below average looking to next season.

Expiring Contracts

In terms of pending free agents, the big name is Trey Hendrickson, who will be coming off an injury shortened 2025 following a failed negotiation for a long-term deal. One of his peers in that position group, Joseph Ossai, should be able to catch on with a plus rotational deal at the least. Cincinnati should be searching for another edge to add to the rotation with Myles Murphy & Shemar Stewart going forward. Dalton Risner is a veteran that makes sense to bring back to fill out the offensive line.

Projected Tags & Cuts

I’m not including ERFA eligible players here (expiring contracts with less than 3 accrued seasons), as they can either sign a league minimum contract or the team can allow them to leave.

The only pre-free agency moves I have Cincinnati making are releasing Orlando Brown and T.J. Slaton as cap casualties. Franchise tagging Trey Hendrickson (which I believe would cost $34.8m) was probably a more serious consideration before he missed time this past season. It’s likely a little rich for a tag & trade as well, so I expect him to either work something out with the team on a traditional extension or hit unrestricted free agency. Elsewhere, Myles Murphy has a 5th year option that can be picked up for an estimated $14m for 2027. I expect the club to exercise that.

The Salary Cap

In the image below, each blue bordered rectangle is equivalent to the cap hit of a single player. Within that rectangle, there are more rectangles that break down the player’s cap hit. Areas colored green can be pushed entirely into a future cap years via max restructure. Areas with vertical bars are “locked in” and the team cannot open them up by releasing the player. They represent either fully guaranteed cash that hasn’t been earned yet or remaining proration from cash earned in previous league years.

Cincinnati, as is the case for them most years, does not need to give any serious consideration to the salary cap. As it stands now, the Bengals have more than $50m in 2026 cap space that isn’t accounted for.

On top of the cap space they have currently, the Bengals can nearly double it by only restructuring the guaranteed portion of cash due to their core players in 2026 (Burrow, Chase, Higgins, Hill). In terms of current cash outlay, I have Cincinnati sitting at $233m (22nd). They’ll have plenty of room to build up their roster if they so choose.

Draft Capital

Looking to the draft, Cincinnati will make their first pick at 10. Their 5th round pick from the Joe Flacco trade has been downgraded to a 6th and they have an extra 7th. This is the 12th biggest draft capital stockpile per my trade based pick value chart.

Recent Team History

The Mike Tomlin era has closed in Pittsburgh after 19 seasons. 2025 was true to the low points of this era, as the Steelers fielded a well-rounded, low-ceiling team that failed to notch a playoff win.

2025 Season

The Steelers held off a surging Baltimore to win the AFC North title for the first time since 2020. In the Wild Card round of the playoffs, they were smothered by the Houston defense.

The Post-Tomlin Era

Pittsburgh hired Mike McCarthy to take on the role vacated by Mike Tomlin’s departure. McCarthy is bringing on Brian Angelichio, a former assistant of his in Green Bay, who was most recently in Minnesota to serve as his offensive coordinator. Another former Green Bay assistant, Patrick Graham, will lead the defensive side of the ball. Graham has spent the previous four seasons with Las Vegas.

Returning Players

Note that all restructures below are assumed to be max restructures. This means that the team will use void years to prorate cash across up to five seasons, minimizing amount that will hit the current year’s salary cap.

For players who are not vested veterans, I’ve replaced information about the player’s active contract with a description of the team control remaining until the player can become an unrestricted free agent.

Pittsburgh’s 2025 offense had big deficiencies at the premium positions. The wide receiver group featured new addition DK Metcalf, but had horrendous depth behind him. This team needs to add two new startable receivers in the offseason if they want to run a modern NFL offense. At offensive tackle, Broderick Jones was unable to distinguish himself as a reliable starter before losing the remainder of his season to a neck injury. Troy Fautanu’s first real NFL season wasn’t bad, but he still has room to develop at right tackle. The rest of the offense featured a reliable trio of interior offensive linemen, a pair of solid running backs, and a rotating cast of versatile tight ends. It’s not a group that is beyond fixing.

Pittsburgh is looking at a group on defense that likely underperformed to expectations in 2025. With some key pieces like Cam Heyward, T.J. Watt, and Jalen Ramsey staring at age regression (or retirement even), there should be some urgency to continue building up depth around those aging stars.

Expiring Contracts

Aaron Rodgers will turn 43 during the 2026 season. Despite Tom Brady playing until age 45, there should be no illusions about how difficult it is to play professional football at any position at this age. It is not known if Rodgers will return at this point, but it is my belief that, at the contract he’s likely to agree to, he’d be the best possible value for this team. Isaac Seumalo, but is another player the Steelers should look to bring back if they’re serious about making a playoff run. Late season addition Asante Samuel Jr. is a player who I would think Pittsburgh will definitely try to get back in the fold.

Projected Cuts & Options

Patrick Queen and Jonnu Smith are two players who I think the Steelers should feel fine walking away from. Smith’s case is pretty obvious as he was a non-factor last year. Queen, while a core defensive starter, had a career worst year in coverage and as a tackler. He’s currently due to earn the 7th most cash of any offball linebacker in 2026. With a healthy free agent and draft class at the position, there are places where a dollar can go further. I expect LT Broderick Jones will have his 5th year option declined. The option provides a fully guaranteed year for the 2027 season at an estimated $20.5m in this case. It’s just too steep for Pittsburgh to justify the cost.

I’m not projecting Jalen Ramsey to be a cut, but at $19.5m, he’s going to be one of the highest paid safeties in football if he continues to play there. There might be some discussion about a pay cut for him that is more in line with whatever role they’re going to have him take on going forward. Pat Freiermuth could also be in line for a contract rework. He was not a player worth $10.8m in 2025, but I expect he’ll have more opportunities as the tight end room thins out.

The Salary Cap

In the image below, each blue bordered rectangle is equivalent to the cap hit of a single player. Within that rectangle, there are more rectangles that break down the player’s cap hit. Areas colored green can be pushed entirely into a future cap years via max restructure. Areas with vertical bars are “locked in” and the team cannot open them up by releasing the player. They represent either fully guaranteed cash that hasn’t been earned yet or remaining proration from cash earned in previous league years.

Pittsburgh is well under the cap for the moment. They’ll have abundant opportunities to push money into future cap years if they so choose.

My “Excess Cap Space” projection for Pittsburgh with the cuts above and taking every restructure opportunity is $131.8m (4th most). The $225.9m cash projection I currently have is just 24th. Pittsburgh’s bargain QB contracts of recent years have kept them somewhat competitive while allowing them to maintain a clean cap situation. If they want to spend a ton of money this offseason, they can.

Draft Capital

Once compensatory picks are made official Pittsburgh is expected to hold a league-high 12 picks. Currently, OverTheCap projects the Steelers to gain a 3rd, 4th, and two 6ths from their net free agency losses in 2025. They hold each of their first five original picks plus have a 3rd from Dallas gained from the George Pickens trade. Their 12 picks weigh in as the 15th biggest 2026 draft stockpile to my trade based pick value chart.

Recent Team History

The Eagles returned to the playoffs in 2025, but bowed out in the Wild Card round after a turbulent season. At 50-18, the Eagles continue to have the best regular season record in the NFL over the last four seasons.

2025 Season

Philadelphia had a few explosive games on offense, but otherwise were often left looking like a subpar unit. As a result, Sean Mannion will step into the offensive coordinator role, replacing Kevin Patullo. The defense, on the other hand, was more consistent with what we have seen from this team in recent years.

Returning Players

Note that all restructures below are assumed to be max restructures. This means that the team will use void years to prorate cash across up to five seasons, minimizing amount that will hit the current year’s salary cap.

For players who are not vested veterans, I’ve replaced information about the player’s active contract with a description of the team control remaining until the player can become an unrestricted free agent.

I would say the truest driver of Philadelphia’s consistent success over the last four years has been their offensive line. The 2025 edition was good, but perhaps was a bit worse than what we’ve come to expect. At receiver, the combination of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith were sometimes not as involved as they had been. The tandem averaged 79.2 receiving yards per player game in their first season together in 2022. There were slight drops in 2023 (76.4) & 2024 (73.5), but their average of 62.8 this season should be a wake up call. You can really tell the same story across the board for every face of this offense: they took a step back in some form.

The Philadelphia defense was anchored by a pair of All-Pro corners in Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell. Zack Baun proved that he earned his contract extension by following up with another stellar year. I’m not sure if there are other returners on this defense (even Jalen Carter or Jordan Davis) who have truly made the jump from good player to star. That being said, I do think the Eagles believe in Carter enough to pick up his 5th-year option at a “star” price of $26.3m. Nolan Smith also has a 5th-year option that can be picked up for $15.4 and I believe the Eagles will take that as well.

Expiring Contracts

Now we get into the tough part. Jaelan Phillips pretty much has to be a guy that gets extended given that they sent a third round pick to Miami to bring him on last season. Dallas Goedert carries a meaningful cap boost if he can ink an extension before his contract voids on on March 11th. If Goedert does not sign before that point, he’ll count as $20.5m against the Eagles cap. If he can get a deal done however, a $12.9m portion of that hit can remain in future cap years. The new deal might carry a cap hit of $4m or so, so the extension should open up at least $9m of space. It should be noted that if the deal is for a single year, they’ll be back in the same spot at this time next year.

Roster Improvement Areas

This team remains strong at all the key positions. Regardless of who they can bring back from 2025, I think they’ll benefit from some help at tight end and safety, even if those players profile more as depth than starters.

The Five Paths to Cap Space

Having thought about it for some time, I see five paths for Philly to open up cap space:

1. Cut Michael Carter II - Clears $8.7m on 2026 cap. An easy call. Carter wasn’t able to break into the rotation after an inbound trade from the Jets. Maybe he negotiates pay cut, he just can’t get $10.2m if he’s not a locked in starter.

2. Dallas Goedert Extension - Clears ~$9m on 2026 cap. Mentioned this above. A Goedert extension allows the Eagles to continue deferring almost $13m in prorated cap paid out from previous years, but it has to be done before his contract voids.

3. Extend or max restructure Jordan Davis - Clears $9.4m at most on 2026 cap. Davis is playing under his 5th-year option in 2026, which can either be max restructured or reduced through an extension.

4. Lane Johnson Retirement - Clears $5.6m starting on June 2nd. Obviously this creates a much bigger problem so I’m sure the Eagles do not wish to clear cap space like this.

5. Trade a player after June 1st - Could clear between $4m-$7m in most cases.

My own projections below assume items 1 & 3, but none of the others.

The Salary Cap

In the image below, each blue bordered rectangle is equivalent to the cap hit of a single player. Within that rectangle, there are more rectangles that break down the player’s cap hit. Areas colored green can be pushed entirely into a future cap years via max restructure. Areas with vertical bars are “locked in” and the team cannot open them up by releasing the player. They represent either fully guaranteed cash that hasn’t been earned yet or remaining proration from cash earned in previous league years.

Unlike the Saints from a few years ago, Philadelphia’s setup essentially assumes a “restructure” in advance through option bonuses. It is a different path to the same destination. The Eagles approach makes very clear though how much maneuverability they really have.

As discussed above, the Eagles really don’t have too much they can do. They’ll be cap compliant right out of the gate, but they’ll be one of the few teams that are actually meaningfully constrained by the cap.

An AJ Brown Trade?

I’ve been vexed for some time about the actual viability of an AJ Brown trade. If Brown were to be traded before June 1st, his cap hit would increase from $23.4m to a $43.4m dead cap hit. As I outlined above, I can get the Eagles to an ultimate excess cap space of $12.2m, but before draft picks are signed it’ll be $29.4m. And if Dallas Goedert is extended, that number is probably closer to $38m. It is enough to absorb the increased cap hit from a Brown trade, keep in mind that there will be cap additions from any players/picks returned in the trade. Ultimately the Eagles will have to carve out space for unsigned draft picks, practice squaders, and an in-season buffer. Pile on the Jaelan Phillips extension and it starts to make even less sense. I’m not saying it is impossible, but if Brown is traded, it’ll cause far fewer problems in the window between June 2nd and Brown’s option exercise date (Sept 1st).

Draft Capital

Philadelphia holds a decent crop of picks in upcoming draft. They’ve got at least one pick in each of the first 5 rounds plus comp picks in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th. Their first pick comes in at 23. Overall, it is the 18th most valuable collection of picks in the 2026 draft.

Recent Team History

The Dolphins missed the playoffs again in 2025. It was their worst season since 2019, though I would argue expectations were lower in this season than in the past.

2025 Season

Miami began the season 1-6 and rebounded to close out the year with 7 wins. The slow start was apparently enough to fire general manager Chris Grier, who had logged a series of poor drafts in recent years. After being eliminated from the playoffs in Week 15, Tua Tagovailoa was relegated from starter to the emergency QB role. Head coach Mike McDaniel held on until the end of the season, but was eventually fired as well. During the season, the team traded away top pass rusher Jaelan Phillips to Philadelphia and lost star receiver Tyreek Hill to a season-ending injury in their Week 4 win on Monday Night Football against New York.

New Brain Trust

New GM Jon-Eric Sullivan and new head coach Jeff Halfley were hired from Green Bay to begin Miami’s coming transformation. Halfley was a defensive coordinator with the Packers and will bring Sean Duggan with him to take that role in Miami. Bobby Slowik, who served on McDaniel’s staff in 2025, was promoted to offensive coordinator. Prior to that, Slowik was the offensive coordinator in Houston for two years.

Returning Players

Note that all restructures below are assumed to be max restructures. This means that the team will use void years to prorate cash across up to five seasons, minimizing amount that will hit the current year’s salary cap.

For players who are not vested veterans, I’ve replaced information about the player’s active contract with a description of the team control remaining until the player can become an unrestricted free agent.

On the offensive side of the ball, the Dolphins have a few excellent pieces, but otherwise are in need of significant help. Center Aaron Brewer was a 2020 UDFA who played every position on the line at Texas State. In 2023, the Titans moved him to center where he was able to parlay his success into a free agent contract with the Dolphins. This season was a true breakout year for him. Assuming Tyreek Hill is traded or is unable to return to form, Jaylen Waddle will become the crown jewel of this offense. De’Von Achane is entering a contract year, but he’s likely among the very back running backs in football.

Miami entered the season with a solid group up front and a hapless secondary. As mentioned previously, Jaelan Phillips was traded at the deadline. Among the defensive front that was retained, Bradley Chubb had one of his worst seasons after missing all of 2024 with his 2023 ACL tear, Chop Robinson followed up a promising rookie year with a dud, Zach Sieler showed signed of aging, and 2025 first round pick Kenneth Grant had an underwhelming showing as a rookie. On the plus side Jordyn Brooks had another great year stopping the run at linebacker and it looks like the Dolphins got the better of the Steelers in the summer trade that swapped Jalen Ramsey for Minkah Fitzpatrick.

Expiring Contracts

While Miami started the year with a serious deficiency in the secondary, they were able to cobble together a few surprising performers, like Rasul Douglas. Douglas will be 32 at the start of next season, but put together a great year. Jack Jones stepped in as the corner opposite Douglas and did well for a late addition. Darren Waller was another player who had some positive moments. It’s not clear if any of these surprises will translate to next season.

Tua Tagovailoa

The future of Tua Tagovailoa’s contract is really the most complicated piece of how Miami moves forward. Understanding the flow of cash is always the best place to start putting the puzzle together. Tagovailoa is due to earn $55m in 2026 and $54m of that is already fully guaranteed. He has another $3m of his salary next year that will vest into a full guarantee on March 15th. If cut, Miami would only relieve itself of $4m. My initial thought was that it positions him well to take on a backup role. However, there is a catch. The contract already has an additional $17m of 2027 salary that is guaranteed for injury. If Tagovailoa were to finish the 2026 season with an injury, he would earn that money when cut. Given his unique injury history, this is a real risk. It serves as a poison pill to his contract that makes playing him or trading him a risk.

Tagovailoa could negotiate the injury guarantee out of his contract. This could open the door for a trade or make Tua a real option to play for Miami again. If he is unwilling to do that, there are a few options. Tagovailoa could remain on the roster and the Dolphins could opt not to play him to avoid his injury guarantee. The team would need to pay an extra $1m this year and guarantee $3m next year, but they’d also be able to spread out his cap hit into the 2028 season. The cap hits would be something like $26m / $27m / $50m over the three years if the Dolphins did a max restructure this year and then designated him for a post-June 1st release a year from now. Another option is to max restructure Tua now, and designate him as a post-June 1st release. This would make Tua’s 2026 cap hit $26m until June 1st, when it would drop to $25m as dead cap. The dead cap hit in 2027 would be $74m. Both paths allow the team to exit other high value contracts right away without spending additional cash on them.

Projected Tags & Cuts

I’m not including ERFA eligible players here (expiring contracts with less than 3 accrued seasons), as they can either sign a league minimum contract or the team can allow them to leave.

There are a number of contracts that Miami needs to drop. The biggest is Tyreek Hill who is in the final year of his once record-breaking extension. He’s due $36m with no guarantees. It’s simply not a deal that makes sense given his injury. Bradley Chubb similarly is due to earn $20.2m non-guaranteed. I think he’s a cut after his drop off this season. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see James Daniels stick after missing basically a full season following his $24m/3yr deal signed last offseason, but under a new GM, I think he’s more likely to be dropped than not. Jason Sanders is in the same boat. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine rounds out the expected cap casualties that I am projecting.

The Salary Cap

In the image below, each blue bordered rectangle is equivalent to the cap hit of a single player. Within that rectangle, there are more rectangles that break down the player’s cap hit. Areas colored green can be pushed entirely into a future cap years via max restructure. Areas with vertical bars are “locked in” and the team cannot open them up by releasing the player. They represent either fully guaranteed cash that hasn’t been earned yet or remaining proration from cash earned in previous league years.

Cutting Tyreek Hill will get the Dolphins to cap compliance, but I suspect the only way for them to have a serious offseason is for the team to also restructure Tua’s contract. It’s a tough situation that is exacerbated by needing to exit a number of contracts simultaneously.

With just $28.9m in projected excess cap space (the amount I think the team can dedicate to extensions and free agents), Miami is in a extremely undesirable position. There is still a large chunk of Tua’s cap hit that will need to hit the cap in the next year or two and just not enough resources to fill the holes. It’ll take some time to get things back on track.

Draft Capital

Save for their 6th round selection that produced the rights to Darren Waller via a pick swap with the Giants, Miami holds all of their own picks in this draft plus a pair of extra third round picks netted from the Phillips trade and a 2025 draft day trade back with Houston. This collection of picks is the 7th best war chest in this draft on trade based draft pick value chart.

Recent Team History

For the seventh time in eight season, the Falcons won 7 or 8 games. In a division that has been wide open for the last four years or so, it’s a tough place to be. Since the Falcons last NFC South championship in 2016, all three rivals have taken the top spot at least once.

2025 Season

The Falcons closed strong, winning four games in a row to tie the Panthers for the best record in the NFC South despite already being eliminated from playoff contention. Even though the win total was a disappointment, there were some bright moments. Atlanta earned wins over Buffalo and the L.A. Rams. They lost to eventual AFC Champion New England by a point and then lost back-to-back games in overtime.

A New Era

Atlanta began their offseason by firing GM Terry Fontenot after five years and head coach Raheem Morris after two. A week after the close of the 2025 season, former QB Matt Ryan was named President of Football after spending the last two years working at CBS. Ryan began his tenure by hiring Kevin Stefanski as head coach. Stefanski had spent the last six seasons as head coach of the Cleveland Browns, where he twice won AP Coach of the Year. Stefanski will bring Tommy Rees along with him. Rees coached under Stefanski for the last two years and served as his offensive coordinator in 2025. Stefanski has already announced that Rees will call the offensive plays, just as he did to close last season in Cleveland. Jeff Ulbrich will be retained as defensive coordinator. Ian Cunningham was hired as General Manager, but Ryan will serve as the “primary football executive”.

Returning Players

Note that all restructures below are assumed to be max restructures. This means that the team will use void years to prorate cash across up to five seasons, minimizing amount that will hit the current year’s salary cap.

For players who are not vested veterans, I’ve replaced information about the player’s active contract with a description of the team control remaining until the player can become an unrestricted free agent.

The Falcons enter the offseason with one of the strongest offensive lines in football. They’ll be returning four starters and all of their key backups from last season. Atlanta will also expects to get right tackle Kaleb McGary back after missing all of 2025 with a leg injury. Drake London and Bijan Robinson will lead a skill group that is underwhelming in it’s current form.

On defense, the Falcons boast what should be a solid coverage group, though that didn’t really translate last season. The pass rush finally seems to be turning the corner. Atlanta was 11th in QB pressure rate according to NFL Pro, a promising improvement on a rate that was bottom three in the league in 2021, 2022, and 2024. It hasn’t come cheap either. Over the last four drafts the Falcons spent 8 of their 17 picks in the first four rounds on defensive linemen. All of those 8 players remained with the team in 2025.

Just last year, Atlanta got aggressive and drafted a pair of edge rushers in the first round who combined for 16 sacks as rookies. The sack totals likely overstate their impact as James Pearce & Jalon Walker ranked 48th & 52nd respectively among 76 edge rushers with at least 250 pass rushes in the 2025 regular season. Still, it was a reason to feel good about their trade up pick 26 for Pearce which cost them the 13th overall pick in the 2026 draft.

The Pearce trade was expensive at the time and now that he finds himself in legal trouble, it will be an even bigger regret.

Expiring Contracts

There are a couple names here to zero in on, starting with Kyle Pitts. Pitts had a solid 5th year, but on the whole has been a letdown compared to the sky high expectations that led to his being drafted immediately ahead of some of the game’s biggest stars in 2021. I don’t necessarily expect it, but he could receive the franchise (est $16.3m) or transition ($13.9m) tag in advance of free agency. David Onyemata, Kaden Elliss, and Tyler Allgeier all have made cases that they should land solid deals in free agency.

The 2024 Quarterback Gambit

In 2024, the Falcons handed Kirk Cousins $90m guaranteed at signed and then drafted Michael Penix with the 8th overall pick a month later. It was panned by many at the time. My opinion then was that drafting Penix was acceptable, but paying Cousins, who was 36 and coming off a serious injury, was a terrible move if they’d already determined that Penix was worthy of their first round pick. The outcome has been catastrophic. Cousins will ultimately cost the team $100m for a year as a mediocre starter and another as a plus backup. Penix has now torn an ACL for the third time. It remains unclear if he’ll be ready to begin the 2026 regular season.

Cousins altered his contract in the regular season to ensure he’d be released, but I’m a little surprised there hasn’t been much talk about the possibility he’d stick around now that the Falcons have brought in Stefanski, who coached Cousins for a couple years with Minnesota.

Projected Tags & Cuts

I’m not including ERFA eligible players here (expiring contracts with less than 3 accrued seasons), as they can either sign a league minimum contract or the team can allow them to leave.

Below, I’m projecting the Cousins cut and I’m also anticipating Darnell Mooney will be cut after a poor 2025. KhaDarel Hodge, Charlie Woerner, and possibly even Jessie Bates are players to keep an eye on who could be cut or forced into negotiating a pay cut. The Falcons will also pick up Bijan Robinson’s 5th year option for 2027, which should be around $11.7m fully guarnteed.

The Salary Cap

In the image below, each blue bordered rectangle is equivalent to the cap hit of a single player. Within that rectangle, there are more rectangles that break down the player’s cap hit. Areas colored green can be pushed entirely into a future cap years via max restructure. Areas with vertical bars are “locked in” and the team cannot open them up by releasing the player. They represent either fully guaranteed cash that hasn’t been earned yet or remaining proration from cash earned in previous league years.

The Falcons won’t need to do much to achieve cap compliance, but I would anticipate a restructure of one or more of AJ Terrell, Drake London, Kaleb McGary, and Jake Matthews given that all of those players have plenty of fully guaranteed cash that can be pushed.

While $77.7m sounds like a lot of cap space, it’s really not all that great considering my assumption here is that the Falcons will have spent just $189m (30th) to get to that point. This is where you really see the impact of the Cousins contract set in.

Draft Capital

As I mentioned above, Atlanta traded away their first round pick in this draft to select James Pearce in 2025. With just five picks, the earliest of which comes at pick 48, the Falcons have the second least draft capital on my trade based pick value chart, narrowly ahead of Green Bay.

Recent Team History

For the third time in three years since drafting C.J. Stroud, the Texans relied on their defense to earn a playoff spot and a wild card round victory, only to fall in the divisional round.

2025 Season

Houston began 2025 with three straight loses. Following that stretch, the Texans defense would go on to cement themselves as the one the top units in football. The season ended for Houston when their 10-game win streak was snapped by New England in one of Stroud’s worst ever performances.

Returning Players

Note that all restructures below are assumed to be max restructures. This means that the team will use void years to prorate cash across up to five seasons, minimizing amount that will hit the current year’s salary cap.

For players who are not vested veterans, I’ve replaced information about the player’s active contract with a description of the team control remaining until the player can become an unrestricted free agent.

The Texans have a solid skill position group, anchored by Nico Collins. Collins turned in a solid season, albeit not nearly as good as his 2024 season when he was third in yards per route run. ESPN’s WR open score, a player tracking metric that evaluates how well a pass catcher gets open even when not targeted, had Collins 14th of 116 WRs in 2024, but 100th out of 110 WRs in 2025. It’s rare to see a player take this big of step back in a skill that is otherwise thought to be stable. I’ll be keeping an eye on how 2026 unfolds for Collins.

The offensive line was a major pain point for this team in 2025. After trading Laremy Tunsil to Washington, the Texans would go on to start second round draft pick Aireontae Ersery at LT for the majority of the season. While Ersery will likely get some time to develop, much of the offensive line feels like an open question at this point.

The Texans defense will be getting the gang back together in 2026. Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter are the best 1-2 punch in the NFL from the edge and the Texans are pairing that combo with an outstanding back seven. PFF’s advanced coverage grades ranked four of those players in the top 12 of their respective positions: Kamari Lassiter (CB #6), Derek Stingley (CB #12), Jalen Pitre (S #3), and Azeez Al-Shaair (LB #8).

Expiring Contracts

I think there are probably a fair number of players that the Texans would like to have back here. Trent Brown had a nice run in the back half of the season and he could be a legitimate candidate to start if the Texans want to move on from Tytus Howard. Ed Ingram had a career year, but he could be looking at more attractive prospects in free agency. The only real hole in the Texans defense is the interior line. Maybe they look to bring back Tim Settle or Sheldon Rankins as a vet who can shore up that group along with a draft pick. I think Tommy Townsend has a good chance to return at punter as well.

Areas of Need

This team really only has one need that jumps out to me: interior offensive line. Compared to past years, I don’t feel like there is quite as much on the market. Perhaps they get aggressive on the trade market as Nick Caserio has done so often. Outside of that, they probably need one (or two) more contributors on the interior defensive line.

Cuts & Options

I’m not including ERFA eligible players here (expiring contracts with less than 3 accrued seasons), as they can either sign a league minimum contract or the team can allow them to leave.

Mario Edwards and Joe Mixon are clearly cuts. Tytus Howard is the difficult one. Has spent seven seasons with the team and has demonstrated versatility, but is due to earn $18m with no guarantees. If Howard were to play guard full-time, he’d currently be due to earn the 7th most cash of any interior offensive lineman in 2026. Maybe it’s a case where they can work out a lower number or maybe they keep him at tackle where that number is easier to swallow.

The Texans will also have until May 1st to pick up 5th year options on C.J. Stroud ($27.2m) and Will Anderson ($22.9m). These are easy pickups and will keep both players under contract through 2027. Expect them to be extended before we get to that point.

The Salary Cap

In the image below, each blue bordered rectangle is equivalent to the cap hit of a single player. Within that rectangle, there are more rectangles that break down the player’s cap hit. Areas colored green can be pushed entirely into a future cap years via max restructure. Areas with vertical bars are “locked in” and the team cannot open them up by releasing the player. They represent either fully guaranteed cash that hasn’t been earned yet or remaining proration from cash earned in previous league years.

For the moment, Houston is expected to be right at the cap number. They’ll gain some space with the obvious restructures along with a few cuts.

Were Houston to take all of their restructure opportunities (they won’t), I’d have them with about $56m in cap space. It’s more than enough to do whatever they like, but it is a smaller number than a lot of other teams have. Some of that is the Howard cut accelerating cap into 2026. From a cash standpoint, what I have above puts Houston at $219m (25th) for right now. On a cash basis, which is what really matters, they’re in “spend whatever you want within reason” territory.

Draft Capital

The Texans hold just four of their original selections for the upcoming draft, but they’ll have four picks landed in trades. Two of the picks acquired from Washington in the Tunsil trade come in at 38th & 106th and the final pick from their Jaxson Dart trade-back will be 69th. Even though they’re picking late, the Texans have the 14th most draft capital on my trade based scale.

Recent Team History

The Cowboys missed the playoffs in their first year under Brian Schottenheimer, but the offense rebounded strongly after a disappointing showing in 2024 where Dak Prescott missed most of the season. The defense, on the other hand, took a step back after star Micah Parsons was dealt to Green Bay.

2025 Season

Even after using some of their Micah Parsons haul to bring in Quinnen Williams from New York, the Cowboys defense remained one of the worst in the NFL. There were very few positive games on the whole on the defensive side.

As a result of the defensive struggles, Dallas fired defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus at the conclusion of the season. Eberflus has been replaced by Christian Parker. Parker is in his first coordinator role after successful runs as a defensive backs coach with the Broncos & Packers.

Returning Players

Note that all restructures below are assumed to be max restructures. This means that the team will use void years to prorate cash across up to five seasons, minimizing amount that will hit the current year’s salary cap.

For players who are not vested veterans, I’ve replaced information about the player’s active contract with a description of the team control remaining until the player can become an unrestricted free agent.

The offense was powered by strong season from Dak Prescott and his two top pass catchers, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. Considering the team has spent three of the their last four first round picks on offensive linemen, 2025 was a mediocre showing up front. This is especially true at tackle, where 2024 first rounder Tyler Guyton was unable to to take a step forward. In the final three games of 2025, Tyler Smith took over at left tackle and had a solid run, just as he did as a rookie in 2022. Guyton and opposite tackle Terence Steele received a bottom 5 pass blocking grade from PFF among 56 offensive tackles with at least 400 pass protection reps in 2025.

The Cowboys defense might have the league’s top interior defensive line trio in Quinnen Williams, Kenny Clark, and Osa Odighizuwa. If that group can more consistent coverage quality on the back end, along with some second level run support, there is no reason this defense can’t turn things around quickly.

Expiring Contracts

It’s not a huge outgoing free agent class for Dallas, but there are some high volume contributors in this group. Former second round pick Javonte Williams had a great season and may look to cash in on the open market if the upper tier running backs like Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker III, and Travis Etienne return to their teams. I expect Dallas will have some interest in seeing if they can bring back Jadeveon Clowney or Dante Fowler as situational pass rushers again.

Projected Tags & Cuts

I’m not including ERFA eligible players here (expiring contracts with less than 3 accrued seasons), as they can either sign a league minimum contract or the team can allow them to leave.

Perhaps the top prize in free agency will be George Pickens. Pickens is the only player that I feel confident will receive the franchise tag, which should be in the neighborhood of $28m. This is rumored to be the case already. If Brandon Aubrey doesn’t iron out a new deal in the next month to be the league’s highest paid kicker, I would think he’ll be offered a second-round tender, which should be just under $6m. No team will make a competing offer and the tender will be rolled into his coming extension.

As far as cuts go, LB Logan Wilson is the one that sticks out the most to me. As it stands now, Wilson would be the 23rd highest paid linebacker in 2026. I don’t think he did enough after arriving from Cincinnati to justify that level of compensation in a year where the draft and free agency already appear to have a strong crop of linebackers. Malik Hooker is maybe the only other player that could be on the cut/renegotiation radar, although I’d lean doubtful as they already need to replace another safety.

Areas of Need

To me, cornerback feels like it is the most important piece that is missing without a clear replacement opportunity. The linebacker and running back groups are in worse shape, but those should be areas with sufficient options in free agency and the draft. On offense, I think Dallas just needs to do what they can internally to get better at tackle and see if they can replicate their 2025 success. On defense, they should be open to getting better at every position beside the interior defensive line.

The Salary Cap

In the image below, each blue bordered rectangle is equivalent to the cap hit of a single player. Within that rectangle, there are more rectangles that break down the player’s cap hit. Areas colored green can be pushed entirely into future cap years via max restructure. Areas with vertical bars are “locked in” and the team cannot open them up by releasing the player. They represent either fully guaranteed cash that hasn’t been earned yet or remaining proration from cash earned in previous league years.

As of this writing, OverTheCap has Dallas at something like $29m over the 2026 salary cap (which you can see by the red vertical line above). It sounds bad, but the Cowboys won’t be faced with any really difficult decisions. As you can see below, the Cowboys have $143m of fully guaranteed cash due in 2026 that can be reduced to $28.6m. As long as teams do not overspend, there is no reason not to do this. The fully guaranteed nature of that money means it is a virtual certainty that it’ll hit the cap eventually. It might as well be as late as possible.

With that being said, after I build in my assumptions that include the Pickens franchise tag, Aubrey’s RFA deal, draft pick signing bonuses, and other future costs, I have the Cowboys slated to be spending $324m in 2026 which is 3rd in the league behind only the 49ers & Lions. Even though they don’t have any other major extensions to work on this year, I would be surprised if Dallas is willing to spend another $40m in 2026 cash on free agents and trades. If the Pickens deal gets done, which it should, don’t expect anything else too splashy from this team.

Draft Capital

Although Dallas gained an extra first round pick this year in the Micah Parsons trade and is expecting to pick up a pair of comp picks, the Cowboys have the 9th best draft capital stock to my trade based pick value model. The Cowboys had already sent their own third round pick to Pittsburgh in exchange for George Pickens and would go on to send their second round pick to the Jets. My trade based value chart breaks the Cowboys picks down like this on scale where the first overall pick is worth 3000 points:

• 12th (own) - 1738 pts

• 20th (GB) - 1318 pts

• Other 5 picks (112, 150, 177, 215, 225) - 250 pts

92% of the Cowboys draft value will likely be spent in the first 20 picks. I would think both will deliver defensive players.

Before the season, I tried to come up with some ways that success or failure in 2025 could be fleshed out beyond wins and losses. My original piece can be viewed at the link below, but I’ll restate all 17 goals as I run through them.

Overall, the win-loss record again my benchmarks is probably a little too rosy. The Browns hit 11 of their benchmarks and failed on 6. Like an actual game, some of these were outright wins, some were wins that felt like losses, one was a loss that felt like a win, and a couple were down right embarrassments.

1) A Pair of Breakouts

Benchmark: Two players finish the season with a 70th percentile PFF grade for the first time in their career (must be among players who make up 80% of snaps at their position)

This one felt like a clear win. Edge rusher Alex Wright was graded in the 80th percentile during a year where he signed a three-year extension and defensive lineman Maliek Collins clocked in with a shortened season also in the 80th percentile, besting his previous best of 53rd percentile in 2022. Rookies Carson Schwesinger (79th percentile) & Mason Graham (66th percentile) posted strong grades as well. Ronnie Hickman was graded in the 68th percentile in his first full season as a starter at free safety. Expect to see all five of these players return to play key roles on the 2026 defense after breakthrough performances in 2025.

Outcome: WIN

2) Young RBs: Effective Early

Benchmark: Rookie RBs combine for positive Rushing Yards Over Expected (NFL Pro model)

Quinshon Judkins joined the team starting in Week 2 and immediately settled in as the go-to rusher for this team. After being knocked out with knee injury in Week 16, he finished the year with +69 rushing yards over expected. Undersized rookie teammate Dylan Sampson wasn’t able to demonstrate similar success. Sampson had some nice flashes when he could get in space, but was mostly ineffective on designed rushes, capping the year with -46 rushing yards over expected. I hope to see Sampson carve out a role under the new coaching staff, but seeing Judkins succeed is something to feel good about.

Outcome: WIN

3) Young QBs: Back(ups) to the Future

Benchmark: Rookie QBs record positive Expected Points Added on QB plays in at least two full games (nflfastR model)

This one was really close. Dillon Gabriel logged two games with positive EPA (Week 7 vs Miami & Week 10 vs the Jets) and Shedeur Sanders added two more (Week 12 vs Vegas & Week 14 vs Tennessee). None of these games were particularly impressive and I’m not sure they provided definitive proof that either of these two will be capable backup QBs down the road.

Outcome: WIN

4) Young DTs: Establish Presence

Benchmark: Graham + Hall combine for 60 pressures and stops (PFF charting)

Similar to Benchmark #2 on the rookie running backs, one player carried the load here. Mason Graham played a ton of football this year and compiled 36 pressures to go with 32 run stops. I felt that Graham made solid improvements as the season went on and is well positioned to make a big jump in his second season, which is enough to feel like this “win” is deserved.

It was a different story for 2024 second round pick Michael Hall. Hall began the year on the active roster, but would still go on to miss the first seven games due to the injury that he suffered in the 2024 finale. When Hall returned, he mostly played at the back end of the rotation and didn’t show any real flashes. Hall’s 2026 roster spot is likely not a lock.

Outcome: WIN

5) Schwesinger: Minimize Mistakes

Benchmark: Allow a first down reception or miss a tackle on <4% of defensive snaps (PFF)

Schwesinger’s season got off to a hot start when he played nearly every snap in the first four weeks while missing just two tackles and allowing only one first down reception in coverage. He came back to earth for the remainder of the season, but still was only charted with 21 first down receptions allowed and 17 missed tackles on a whopping 958 snaps, which is right about what should be expected from a starting linebacker.

Outcome: WIN

6) Jones: The Solution at LT

Benchmark: Play 10 full games at left tackle, end the season with a PFF grade above 70 (~40th percentile)

This one is by far the most painful loss. Dawand Jones started the first two games at left tackle, but rotated out a couple times during the second game. PFF graded Jones poorly in both of those games. In Week 3, Jones unexpectedly started at right tackle, but suffered a season-ending injury on the fourth play. He expects to return for OTAs next spring, but he is simply not a player that can be counted on for the Browns future plans. The team now faces an uphill climb to find a pair of capable offensive tackles for next season.

Outcome: LOSS

7) Tillman: Continued Development

Benchmark: Make 40 first down receptions (includes touchdowns)

Receivers with deeper route trees like Tillman are often the players who see their production affected most by young quarterbacks that can’t get through their progressions cleanly. Even without his four game stint on IR, Tillman, who made 13 first down catches in 2025, wasn’t likely to come even close to hitting his goal here. Poor QB play aside, Tillman failed to cement himself as a long-term answer in the WR room. He’ll have prove he belongs in the final year of his rookie deal in 2026.

Outcome: LOSS

8) Garrett: Remain Dominant

Benchmark: Record 95 pass rush wins (PFF charting)

Not much that needs to be said about this one. The newly crowned single-season sack record holder was charted with 118 pass rush wins. Myles Garrett remains at the peak of his powers heading into 2026.

Outcome: WIN

9) Ward: Stay Healthy & Avoid a Cliff

Benchmark: Play 80% of snaps in at least 9 games and allow a first down catch on less than 5% of coverage snaps

Truth be told, I don’t really feel great about this one even though Ward delivered on both conditions. While I try not to buy into the “injury prone” label, Ward always seems to find himself dealing with something. This season, Ward missed Week 15 & 16 with a calf injury and exited three other games early with injuries. Ward was listed on the injury report in Weeks 1-4 with a shoulder injury, but played through it. He was also listed multiple times with a hip injury that did not affect his availability. When Ward did play, he was fine. Ward was credited with a career low 4 pass breakups. Relevant to the goal I set him, Denzel Ward allowed 19 first down receptions on 452 coverage snaps. It was a good enough year, but one that makes me wonder if he’s approaching more serious age regression.

Outcome: WIN

10) Jeudy: Keep Getting Open

Benchmark: Earn 17 targets at least 10 yards downfield with 3+ yards of separation (NFL Pro tracking)

Jerry Jeudy was targeted 16 times in the situation outlined above in 2025, just one target short of his goal. In ESPN’s WR Open Score, Jeudy ranked 65th out of 106 WRs, a step back from his strong performance in 2024. His bigger problem this year was an inability to convert at the catch point. Jeudy caught just 49% of his targets and PFF charted him with 9 drops. Given that he’s due to earn a relatively low $13.5m next year, his starting role should be plenty safe in 2026.

Outcome: LOSS

11) Collins: Apply Pressure

Benchmark: Record 40 QB pressures (PFF charting)

This is probably the “loss” that feels the most like a win. Collins season ended midway through his 12th game, but he still delivered 28 pressures, which would have been right on pace for the target I set out for him. Notably, Collins recorded 6.5 sacks, a career-high. He’s going to be a great piece to bring back in 2026.

Outcome: LOSS

12) Make it to 3:15pm

Benchmark: Lead or trail by less than 7 at the start of the 4th quarter in 10 games

In the eight games before the Browns Week 9 bye, they trailed by more than a touchdown five times. After the bye, we saw a little more fight. The Browns were tied or held the lead in five of their last nine games and were trailing by seven or less in two other games. It would have been nice to closer games earlier on!

Outcome: WIN

13) A Few Moments of Relevancy

Benchmark: Win at least 3 games against the AFC North, NFC North, and Buffalo

This is a hard one to square as a true “win”. The Browns Week 3 win against Green Bay took some lucky bounces, although it was a true moment of relevancy in that it was an early sign of how good this defense could become. The team sealed the deal on this benchmark with back-to-back season-ending wins over Pittsburgh & Cincinnati. While it does feel good to beat AFC North rivals, particularly the Steelers who were trying to clinch a division title, losses in these two games would have handed the Browns the top overall pick in the 2026 draft.

Outcome: WIN

14) Keep it Respectable

Benchmark: Finish the year with a point differential better than -85

The Browns finished the season with a point differential of -100, 16 points from the target I set for them. This number feels like an accurate reflection of how much the team struggled in 2026. The Cardinals (-133), Raiders (-191), Titans (-194), and Jets (-203) each had worse point differentials.

Outcome: LOSS

15) Jaguar Watch

Benchmark: Jacksonville loses 10 games

2025 was a tremendous season for Jacksonville. The first round pick awarded from the Travis Hunter trade is still very valuable, just not as valuable as expected at the time of the trade. If the Jaguars lose their playoff opener, the pick will resolve to the 23rd or 24th pick.

Outcome: LOSS

16) Stay Out of the News

Benchmark: No arrests (or speeding tickets)

No news is good news here. The focus remained on football for the entirety of the season in Cleveland. Hoping to see the Browns extend their hot streak of citizenry deep into the offseason.

Outcome: WIN

17) No More Deshaun Watson

Benchmark: Watson does not appear on 48-man gameday roster in any game

Watson spent most of the year on the Physically Unable to Perform list. His 21-day practice window was opened in early December, but despite questions at QB, Watson’s window closed prior to the Browns Week 17 game against the Steelers without being activated. As of this writing, there are still questions about cap relief the Browns may receive from insurance for Watson missing the full season. Either way, there is no indication that Watson will under serious consideration to play in 2026, but I would expect him to remain on the roster until March 2027 when his final dead cap hit can be absorbed in the 2027 & 2028 seasons.

Outcome: WIN

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